FaunaClassifieds - View Single Post - The odds gods, statistics, and patience with hets.

07-27-2019, 12:55 PM

I have been fascinated by a simple test to help determine a "luck" quotient. Many 2 prong AC plugs these days are keyed in such a way that they will only go into a wall receptacle in one direction. Simply pick up a plug, and without looking, just try to put it into the wall socket. Even though there is a 50/50 chance you will have it correctly oriented, at least in my case, there is an 80 percent (or better) chance I will be holding it in the incorrect orientation.

It has gotten to the point that now when I pick up a plug, without bothering to look, I simply flip it around from the way I picked it up and would have tried to plug it in, to force the bad odds to work in my favor. Now I am wrong only 20 percent of the time.

But more on topic, selling hets has always been an iffy proposition, simply because it places the seller's reputation with a purchaser completely at the mercy of the luck of that purchaser. The truth of the matter is, no matter the percentages of possibilities, the actual real world results of breeding hets to hets together will produce a number of the target gene combinations anywhere from a zero percent to 100 percent POSSIBILITY for any and all of a clutch to produce what you are hoping for. Any anywhere in between. With the likely results being an even spread of both extremes when you are talking about a single clutch of offspring.

Heck, I recall MANY times breeding double hets together and then when the clutch would hatch out, I would have several babies expressing PART 1 gene, and then have several more babies expressing PART 2. But luck raised it's ugly head and refused to grant me any babies expressing BOTH of those genes. This has happened more times than I care to think about. That is why I concluded long ago that the only way to compensate for the frivolous and capricious influence of luck is by trying to overwhelm that handicap with large numbers.

As for people BUYING hets, you really need to go into this understanding what this means about your hopes and future plans of any projects you are counting on. Yeah, visuals are always more expensive. There is a reason for that.

I can remember people asking me about the genetics of some of the corn snakes I developed, and when I told them, they decided to just buy those genes saying they would save money by just rolling their own. Gave me a chuckle, it did..... I wonder now what they are thinking about their plan?

07-27-2019, 12:55 PM	#4
WebSlave	I have been fascinated by a simple test to help determine a "luck" quotient. Many 2 prong AC plugs these days are keyed in such a way that they will only go into a wall receptacle in one direction. Simply pick up a plug, and without looking, just try to put it into the wall socket. Even though there is a 50/50 chance you will have it correctly oriented, at least in my case, there is an 80 percent (or better) chance I will be holding it in the incorrect orientation. It has gotten to the point that now when I pick up a plug, without bothering to look, I simply flip it around from the way I picked it up and would have tried to plug it in, to force the bad odds to work in my favor. Now I am wrong only 20 percent of the time. But more on topic, selling hets has always been an iffy proposition, simply because it places the seller's reputation with a purchaser completely at the mercy of the luck of that purchaser. The truth of the matter is, no matter the percentages of possibilities, the actual real world results of breeding hets to hets together will produce a number of the target gene combinations anywhere from a zero percent to 100 percent POSSIBILITY for any and all of a clutch to produce what you are hoping for. Any anywhere in between. With the likely results being an even spread of both extremes when you are talking about a single clutch of offspring. Heck, I recall MANY times breeding double hets together and then when the clutch would hatch out, I would have several babies expressing PART 1 gene, and then have several more babies expressing PART 2. But luck raised it's ugly head and refused to grant me any babies expressing BOTH of those genes. This has happened more times than I care to think about. That is why I concluded long ago that the only way to compensate for the frivolous and capricious influence of luck is by trying to overwhelm that handicap with large numbers. As for people BUYING hets, you really need to go into this understanding what this means about your hopes and future plans of any projects you are counting on. Yeah, visuals are always more expensive. There is a reason for that. I can remember people asking me about the genetics of some of the corn snakes I developed, and when I told them, they decided to just buy those genes saying they would save money by just rolling their own. Gave me a chuckle, it did..... I wonder now what they are thinking about their plan?