New price order?

I know there are a few posts I haven't gotten to, but I'm only here for a minute and I want to toss this back out.

A breeding sized female is worth 1000. Now, even in 3 years, a breeding-sized pastel is going to be worth more than 250, because that's the basic price for a normal breeder female. The cost of normals hasn't changed that much over time, and that caps off what you would expect to lose on the low end of the market.

Two things: 1) think about what the cost of a female pastel hatchling was in 05, and 2) $250 isn't the base price of a normal breeder female...if it was, I wouldn't be sitting on a handful that I couldn't move @ $150. Check the classifieds - people are dumping them. Since I stopped advertising mine, I have seen 04s and 05s listed anywhere from $50-125... I'll hand them out in the park before practically giving them to somebody else to breed.
Nah, skip the shipping, I'll just eat them here.

Also, I DO understand that if I was of a different mindset, I could breed a spider and mojave male to 3-4 females each...and that the resultant offspring would have some value. I just don't have any real desire to produce BPs. At one point, I was infatuated with bumblebees, which is why I have spiders and pastels...and I will still probably do a couple of pastel x spider pairings this year. I don't dislike spiders, but I will probably get a few in the planned breedings, so there is no reason for me to breed that spider male to normal females to get MORE spiders and MORE normals. (Please keep in mind that I never had any plans of breeding that group of normal females, nor did I plan on keeping them once I got stuck with them - I was just lazy and didn't advertise them).

Of course, pastels were worth a ton several years back...they drop every year just like other co-doms. But at the price they are now, that drop is slowing to a crawl.

The fact that you can't move your normal females at $150 (assuming they're 1500 gram breeders) probably has to do more with the slowness of the market than with an actual lack of sales. Just as an example, I need two more females before the end of the season, and we're planning to pay up to 300 apiece for them, because we want giant females who lay giant clutches, rather than smaller ones that will lay 4 to 6 eggs. I'm not buying them right now, because I don't have the money yet. I WILL...I just don't have it at the moment. I don't think you're going to have them forever--people are shopping for normal females, it just may take them longer than usual this year.

Consider that the slowness of the market means it's taking others longer to sell THEIR animals, and that's the money that they need to pay for your females--you're going to be selling those to breeders, not to people looking for pets, after all. They're still going to want those females.

It's easier to justify hanging on to a 10 grand animal for as long as it takes to sell it, because the feed cost for it is a drop in the bucket. But then, you can't say you can't make back what you invested into the spiders and pastels just because you don't want to produce BPs. I fully understand why you're just waiting so that you can make some bumblebees and be done with it...but for that, you're just doing it because you want some bees, and not to make money, because by the time you're making bees, bees will have dropped a lot too.

Originally Posted by WingedWolf

Of course, pastels were worth a ton several years back...they drop every year just like other co-doms. But at the price they are now, that drop is slowing to a crawl.

Of course the drop is slowing to a crawl...there isn't much further they can go. They have been mass produced, without concern for the quality of the end product, which has led to the production of a whole lot of butt ugly pastels. I still hope that one day people will come to their senses and, as Seamus suggested, think not about whether they can breed something - but whether they SHOULD. I do recognize much of what made BPs popular, even if I didn't fall for the hype (thankfully, that whole phenomena occured during my dormant period...when I hit the first show of my return, I was amazed). I've anticipated, and still hope the day will come, when there is will be a different price scheme in effect for pastels...where selective breeding will once again pay off, and people will realize the difference between breeding stock and "pet quality"

Originally Posted by WingedWolf

The fact that you can't move your normal females at $150 (assuming they're 1500 gram breeders) probably has to do more with the slowness of the market than with an actual lack of sales. Just as an example, I need two more females before the end of the season, and we're planning to pay up to 300 apiece for them, because we want giant females who lay giant clutches, rather than smaller ones that will lay 4 to 6 eggs. I'm not buying them right now, because I don't have the money yet. I WILL...I just don't have it at the moment. I don't think you're going to have them forever--people are shopping for normal females, it just may take them longer than usual this year.

Consider that the slowness of the market means it's taking others longer to sell THEIR animals, and that's the money that they need to pay for your females--you're going to be selling those to breeders, not to people looking for pets, after all. They're still going to want those females.

Oh, I know people are looking for them...they just don't seem to want to pay for them, lol. I've had numerous inquiries, most of which ended up with some statement to the effect of I really want them, I just don't have the money. Now, with that statement in mind, think back to what I described earlier regarding my salesmanship. After 3-5 of those responses, I was grumbling about people wasting my time, and why the hell don't they know they don't have any money before they email back and forth for 3 days (and I understand that SOMETIMES, there are unexpected circumstances - those don't bother me...in fact, I can empathize). Once I was at 10-12, I was done. I pulled the ads...and when people contacted me asking if they were still available, I told them no. I calmed, and went through the drill with a few more people - only to experience more of the same. Screw it, those girls are staying for now. Maybe I'll trade them off for something at a show, maybe I'll advertise them as free to a good home locally, maybe I WILL eat them. At this point, I'm not even thinking about it...the rack is already here, they're already in it, and they don't take all that much extra time (besides, I've had them for 3 yrs...they're pets now, not ball pythons)

Originally Posted by WingedWolf

But then, you can't say you can't make back what you invested into the spiders and pastels just because you don't want to produce BPs

I acknowledged that, over several seasons, I COULD make back that investment. The point was that, even as adults, they aren't worth what I paid for them as babies 3 yrs ago; and that I'm not going to fall into breeding things just for the sake of the money. (I think...who knows, I was pretty busy/distracted when I posted those) I accepted that, in the course of making bees, I would produce normals, pastels, and spiders. I started with good pastels and spiders, because I am a proponent of selective breeding...that doesn't justify me producing extras just because I have those normal females available. Sure, a lot of people do. If I had a strong interest in BPs, I probably would, too. Under the circumstances, though, it doesn't make sense.

You're right, the bees were for me, because I wanted to. The price of bees has dropped significantly already (and, yes, I'm very disheartened by the ugly bees I have seen ).

Selective breeding and responsible breeding seem to be old hat now a days. When I got my pastel BP , males were $1k , females $2k and sold like hotcakes by the thousands. Because they LOOKED like pastels then. Without selective breeding the quality goes down quickly and the price will follow. I can't expect anyone to pay $1k for a pastel that hatched turd brown. I can't see paying $100 for a turd brown pastel now either.

I'll spend my money with someone who selectively breeds over mass production. From what I am seeing the $$$ signs overrode any possibility for some folks to take a few minutes to read up on the morph's attributes and spend some extra time & care to pick the best mates for it. Its really evident selective breeding took a back seat by most if you think about how many folks bought CH buy the hundreds to raise up as breed stock for co-dom projects.

Boas take the same hits as well. When pastels REALLY hit the scene , you couldn't find a normal boa in an ad to save your life. Everything just had to be a pastel since pastels were worth more. Add in a few really cool co-doms and away it went. Arabesques and Motleys were bred to anything with a pulse in mass numbers and now finding a good Arab that typifies the original look is near impossible.

All of this has taken its toll. When folks produce far more than they can handle just because the big boys do, then the market takes a hit. They never stop to think that the big boys have overseas markets. When the hobby breeder dumps his 10 Mot litters on the US ads ( multiply hobby breeders by 100 , 1000 etc ) , the big boys have other means to move stock and really don't feel the pinch in the same way we do.

Its easy to say you can sell $100 snakes faster than a $1000 snake but as a hobby breeder or small operation , we don't produce enough $100 snakes to keep us as viable financially as a larger operation can.

I've seen folks who are quite ready to spend a little extra $$$ for a very nice quality animal that will be selectively bred. I've seen others that don't care how the animal looks as long as its genetic and the price is as close to wholesale as they can get. Others still have no clue either way and pretty much stay in the middle. If they can get a deal on a nice animal , great , if not someone has something close if they even know enough about how the mutation works to have an idea of what to look for.

Add this up and there is plenty of room for varying prices across the board.

I've anticipated, and still hope the day will come, when there is will be a different price scheme in effect for pastels...where selective breeding will once again pay off, and people will realize the difference between breeding stock and "pet quality"

A few breeders do this to some extent. The animals are graded by quality and the price reflects where that animal sits on their scale. This is a model we've opted to adopt to price our animals. The better looking ones being priced higher with less wiggle room compared to lower grades. I find this style of pricing effective , especially if the breeder is working with good stock to start, which produces the better looking babies across the board while offering prices in a variety of ranges that customers can use to fit good stock within their budget.

My better half scans the ads more than I do but we both have taken to looking at the breeders who have been long term in the hobby / industry to build the business model we choose to use. I feel by following what those individuals , who have seen good times and bad more than once , have done to succeed then I can't go too wrong as long as I keep an open mind when I really feel the need to be flexible.

Too many folks are in a panic right now. I think if this lasts long enough , the diehards will remain while the faint of heart fall to the wayside. I think the staying power to keep the market viable isn't cutting 50% or more off of the price but holding steady to realistic drops in price. Once those cuts are made , there is no going back when the economy gets better.

I agree completely, and hope that the majority of the breeders out there do as well. It would be a shame for everyone to drop prices insanely, and then have the market recover in 2 years...and there you are.

I like to buy the best animal I can afford...which will hopefully be a much nicer one next year than it was this year...and so on. What sort of look you go for in a morph has to also depend on what you mix it with, though. High yellow pastels are, _I_ think, prettier than the ones that brown out. But what if you're mixing it with a cinnie? Or a burgundy? Etc. There may be a purpose served in having a low yellow pastel. You have to experiment to find out what different looks you can produce.

It's also tough to selectively breed co-dom morphs for things when you are crossing them to normal females. You can pick a female that's a good match, but in reality you just have to wait and see to find out how the babies will turn out. It may take 12 years for you to even make a dent in developing a high gold or light tan, or high yellow line of normals to improve morph lines. You can't always just breed morphs to morphs, either, that makes it awfully hard to see what's going on. NERD's got high yellow line normals--it must have taken them ages to develop them.
Take the best, brightest lemon pastel NERD has and breed it to a drab female, and you're going to get 'ok' lemon pastels. I've found it hard to select breeder females with some of the attitude in the market. "Pictures aren't available, they're just normals". >.<

I've seen things marketed as 'lemon pastels' that just plain aren't, anymore.

The 'morph morph morph' attitude is understandable, but compared with, say, leopard geckos, ball python breeding is WAY behind when it comes to selective breeding for various traits. There's a huge area there waiting to be filled. It'll take a really long time to do it, but once you have a selective bred line, you've got something tremendously valuable.

Envision a line of ball pythons that consistantly throw super high yellow reduced pattern females that grow large and lay 10+ egg clutches in 5 years.
How much would that be worth to you? "Just a normal". Right. lol

Morphs will continue to come and go...I wonder if there will ever be a slow-down in finding new ones? There are enough crosses to keep people entertained for decades. Which is another reason why I'm not worried about price drop-outs.

In my opinion ball pythons are overpriced (bear with me I'm into ball pythons). But it's not me that dictates that, it's the market. If an animal posted in a heavy traffic web site is up for sale for weeks with no takers, then you are priced off the market. You can wait with the animal until a "new generation" of reptile keepers is born (joke) or you can accept a lower offer in your animal. This flexibility will be different for different individuals. Some can subsidize their hobby/business with external income and can thus wait longer for an animal to sell at a given price; some cannot. My perception is that the longer an animal is out there at the same price the chances for it to sell decrease constantly. Or in Einstein's words: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. ;

Best!

Originally Posted by WingedWolf

Take the best, brightest lemon pastel NERD has and breed it to a drab female, and you're going to get 'ok' lemon pastels. I've found it hard to select breeder females with some of the attitude in the market. "Pictures aren't available, they're just normals". >.<

I've seen things marketed as 'lemon pastels' that just plain aren't, anymore.

No such f#$%in' morph.

Dan,

I hate to say it but you sound like a disgruntled buyer that thought they were going to be able to take advantage of a poor economy to get high end animals for cheap. When your plan to take advantage of breeders in distress didnt pan out like you hoped, you decide to blame the market for not being able to get that animal you feel you are entitled to at the price you felt you were entitled to get it at. Not trying to be insulting to you in the least, just saying what it looks like to a degree.

Simple supply and demand and competition will dictate prices. Look at Pastels, Albinos, Spiders, etc, etc, etc, etc, that have taken really big nose dives over the last couple of years. Supply overtook demand and you had countless different breeders producing them, so the prices came down. And the same is happening to all the other base morphs and many of the more dated designer morphs.

If you are trying to get in on a morph/designer morph that supply is still limited on, you are going to pay a premium. That is just basic economics. Remember when CD players first came out? DVD players? The cost was outrageous. $800-$1000. 5 years later they were literally under $100 because supply caught up with demand and many different companies were producing them which created competition. So if you want that limited supply item you are going to pay a premium for it. Or you can wait until that item is no longer in limited supply and pay a lower price.

Just my two cents on it.

Originally Posted by KelliH

Agree 100% and this is why I am able to keep going year after year, and will continue to breed leopard geckos, which are my passion. I really like what you have said about widespread attention and care, and I agree. The supply/demand/overproduction "thing" has happened before. What usually ends up happening is that you will see a large number of aspiring leopard gecko breeders having a "Collection Sale" and getting out of it because they are frustrated. It's not easy to sell leopard geckos unless you have something really unique or unusual, or a brand new morph, and/or are a very well known breeder. I actually tell/warn my customers about this. Sometimes I think I am not the best salesperson but they always buy anyway.

And then there is the flip side of that coin. Trying to find a simple patternless male or blizzard male to finish off some of my projects is like pulling teeth. The biggest "new thing" on the market has over shadowed the pure joy of being able to keep these special creatures. Seems that so many jumped in head first with out realizing the cost of feeding and housing. Because we breed our worms and feeder rodents, my supply is readily available and is not an issue.

I am more into my lizards then the high end collection of boas that I brought across the country when I moved here. My lizards know me and respond to me. The pip of the baby after years of hard work is more exciting to me than the prospect of selling them. For that single moment, I don't feel like I have wasted my time.

The animals that Bryon and I produce also gives us trading power to get the crriters that we covet. We maybe be BnL Exotix, but we are very different from our keeping styles and what we really love.

The passion for the boa's that I brought across the counrty is still very intense. When I purchased them I did so out of the love of the breed not the money or greed. I love the motley boa, it is my favorite morph and I payed a good chunk of change for them 2 years ago. Same thing with my Sabogaes. I went straight to the breeder for them. And the same with my hpyo 100% het blood boas.

And in the spring all of our efforts will not be wasted but worth it when I see those beautiful babies. At then end of the season, it will be a labor of love and not greed that keeps me motivated to improve on selective breeding and what worked and what didn't.