Come on people... Not a square is to be found.

I meant to put this is one reason why people were buying so much. People like this make me sick. The thing is a lot of these pricks were the ones buying 20 packages a few weeks ago because they planned on this so that people who really do need some for themselves now are screwed. If I run out I'm wiping my ass on some of my old T shirts then I am packing them up and sending them to this clown.

I read that Amazon is trying to prevent people from price gouging on these sorts of products. Amazon is also sold out of major brands of TP, too.

Originally Posted by Socratic Monologue

Yes, but the shelves don't empty from only people who have been diagnosed (those are the ones who are being told to self-quarantine, right?) -- .

I guess I should have said 'in anticipation of'
If someone is suspect or actually diagnosed, one would hope they are not then going out to the store!

Originally Posted by AbsoluteApril

I guess I should have said 'in anticipation of'
If someone is suspect or actually diagnosed, one would hope they are not then going out to the store!

Yeah, I guess that makes sense.

Considering that the same sort of situation exists every single year with influenza (might get it, should stay home/will be unable to leave home, hard to get supplies) it is unfortunate that we aren't simply ready as a matter of course. Then again, we need reminders to wash our hands, so...

Originally Posted by Socratic Monologue

I read that Amazon is trying to prevent people from price gouging on these sorts of products. Amazon is also sold out of major brands of TP, too.

Amazon still has the stuff on the huge rolls that is used in commercial facilities, or the bulk single-ply smaller rolls. Office supply stores like Grainger still have it all in stock too. It's not Ultra-Soft Fresh Scent Charmin but you can still get cleaned up with it.

Many large-chain grocery stores recently started offering online ordering with free delivery. So, if you don't have enough food in the house for two weeks you can order it. Amazon sells non-perishable foods as well.

Luckily my wife buys the huge packages that last us 6 months and were already stocked up before any of this happened. At work my supplier has everything labeled "antibacterial" back stocked.

Everyone at work wants those antibacterial lotions posted near work stations. I said sure, right after this virus thing is over....

Originally Posted by Socratic Monologue

Yes, but the shelves don't empty from only people who have been diagnosed (those are the ones who are being told to self-quarantine, right?) -- there's only a few thousand of those. Empty shelves is everyone in town buying the same thing, something presumably everyone already has at least some of.

How much TP does a household go through in two weeks? Not multiple big bricks.

Well in my case, I am planning on going on lockdown pretty soon. TOTAL LOCKDOWN. The fly in this ointment is that Connie is waiting on some bridgework for her teeth to be made so the dentist can fit it in her mouth. This is expected to be around the 23rd of this month. To say I am not real keen on the dentist and his assistant sticking their gloved fingers in her mouth is quite an understatement. They seem to be pretty good about sanitation, but still, this is apparently a very highly contagious organism we are dealing with.

Florida is now showing 115 confirmed infections of COVID-19. Fortunately none in our immediate vicinity. Luckily I live in an area that just doesn't wind up on very many people's list of travel destinations. But I feel like we are playing Beat The Clock. Just because there are no confirmed infections in my area doesn't mean there are guaranteed no infections here. Sporing break for FSU is March 16—March 20. So after March 20, those students will be coming back, perhaps from some areas that there are active infections present.

I have read that someone becoming infected with this coronavirus becomes infectious in about 12 hours, but might not exhibit any symptoms for an average of 14 days, and as many as 28 days. The virus itself can live in open air for 3 hours. And on some surfaces for several days. Both Connie and I are over 65 years old. Put that all together and you have a pretty alarming picture.

So our goal with going into lockdown is to try to AVOID becoming infected. The question with an unknowable answer is: How long will that have to be?

I suspect that many other people are doing the same thing, hence their plans on purchasing now stocks of items that they may need in the upcoming MONTHS of being in self imposed isolation. Think they won't be needing toilet paper? Well think this through. Because unless they have a much different idea about person hygiene and cleanliness than I do, yes, they will. If they are locked down for months, that means no running out to the grocery store to get more until it looks like things have gotten much better and the chances of becoming infected have been greatly reduced.

If this gets bad enough, it won't just be a matter of grocery stores running out of product until the deliveries can catch up with demand. Truck drivers will get sick too, and the rest might justifiably be fearful enough of becoming infected to just quit their jobs and go into lockdown themselves. Which means the shelves in grocery stores could STAY empty for quite a while. Once any employee at a grocery store becomes infected, pretty much that store will be closed and sealed. Maybe temporarily to be disinfected, perhaps much longer since employees will likely leave, and supply trucks aren't showing up anyway. If you have not prepared, what are you going to do then?

Yeah, I know, a lot of people think this isn't possible in a country like the USA. I hope they are right. I would much rather be wrong myself about the potential, but the risk TO ME of them being wrong is a whole lot greater than the risk of me being wrong instead. When you catch a virus, you keep a virus.

Yeah, I sure would like to think that other countries like China, Iran, Italy, etc. have just been kidding us all along about their battle with this virus. But how likely is that? And this is only the first introduction to a *new* pathogen that is highly capable of frequent and unpredictable mutations. One that, as best I can tell, is going to be around for a long damn time now that it is here. There are already at least two strains running now, with one being worse than the other. Are there more today? Going to be more tomorrow?

Find and try to understand technical papers from people who have been studying this virus. You may find some of them damn eye opening. Try to make your decisions about what to do now based on as many facts as you can gather around yourself. Doesn't sound too bad to you? That is fine. But don't condemn others who might come to a different conclusion and are taking what they believe are sensible precautions.

Hope for the best, but dammit, don't you think it might be wise to plan for the worst? At least a little bit? Just figure out your own personal cost of being wrong either way and act accordingly.

IMHO.

Originally Posted by Socratic Monologue

How much TP does a household go through in two weeks?

Two weeks is the quarantine time frame within which symptoms may develop after possible exposure. However, if one does develop symptoms and is infected, illness and recovery can prolong that time and one certainly would not want an infected person to go out and buy supplies.

Remember too that families are involved. There may be a family of 5, school is closed, parents now working from home. They are going for basic social distancing to protect themselves and others so naturally want to buy supplies ahead to reduce exposure risk. This means 1) they are using more food and other supplies than they did when they were out for most of the day and 2) It is possible that if a family member shows symptoms, even if he/she quarantines into a room, other family members may become infected but at different rates, greatly extending the isolation time. (This is what happens on the cruise ships). And there has been some discussion about re-infection after recovery.

Mild infections may not shed much virus after 10 days from when symptoms manifest, severe infections more than that. Of course, there are still big gaps in our knowledge. To me it makes sense to take sensible precautions and that means buying supplies. I already do some prep so did not have to run out and buy, but I certainly understand those who just recently have come to understand that this may be a MUCH longer haul than anyone expects.

Social isolation, 'flattening the curve' means trying to stay out of harm's way until such time that if you or a loved one does get infected and it is a severe case, that there is medical staff/ventilators available to try to save your life. They have done forecasts showing that the more social isolation and less exposure all at one time that a country has, the more people will actually survive.

People need to understand that by the time a person becomes symptomatic, they were already spreading around the virus for maybe 2 weeks. This is not like most other virus infections. This one is like something that some insane scientist designed to have it spread as far as possible and as quickly as possible. Not saying that it was lab created, but not saying that is impossible, neither. What I find worrisome is that when it first showed up in China, they acted like they knew exactly what it was and they knew it wasn't just a common cold.

What worries me the most is the very early nature of our experience with it. Is it carrying a payload that might not show up for months or even years? If so, by then it will way too late for people to start thinking, "heck, I should have tried much much harder not to catch this thing."

I, for one, sure as hell hope that this doesn't live up to some of the worst things I have read about the possibilities of it. And I would feel a hell of a lot better if the internet was just flooded with accounts directly from the supposed "recovered" victims, showing they are just fine and dandy now.