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Those are useful anecdotes, and it is good to be able to talk to someone who has such a long history in captive herp circles, sincerely.
With all due respect, though, I don't think I will be backing down on my own position much at all -- though I readily admit that claiming "they're all smuggled lineage" was somewhat hyperbolic; the universal quantifier is always a risky gamble (see what I did there?).
In regards to the AZA affiliated importer from England, I think we're on the same page about the (remote) possibility that there may be rugosa in private hands descended from such stock, and there is a (even more remote) possibility that lineage to the present could be established. Why there haven't been known sales of such animals from that time period to the present (as with other "zoo line" animals that I'm familiar with such as the very common San Antonio Zoo line T. micropholis) is a troubling question, though, and suggests that such lineage cannot be established, and that any claims of lineage are very likely to be fraudulent given the financial value of the animals. Aside from human nature, finding one of those animals in the current captive stock would be (statistically speaking) the needle in the haystack.
FWIW, there have been Federal permitting procedures in place for Australian exports back to at least 1982 -- the Wildlife Protection Act predated and was replaced by the EPBC Act. There were certainly state procedures in place before then, but they're hard to find.
I think the Tarpon Zoo mention undermines your position quite a bit, since Mr Tsalickis served about 20 years for his involvement with cocaine trafficking. To think the animals he sold were all or even mostly legal strains credulity to the point of absurdity.
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