What happened with the piebald market?

Your post is a great example of why I won't get into these high end morphs until they come way down. I've seen it before, people like you and me look at these new "hot morphs" and try to figure out if it's worthwhile to invest early or not. Time and time again it's not.

Here's why (IMHO), yes, you can go out and get hets for "reasonable prices." But how many can one really afford? A pair, or maybe a trio. If you have big cash, you can go ahead and buy the homozygous recessive animals and produce the desired offspring sooner. But guys like you and me will NEVER be able to compete with the big guys, the Bells, the Clarks, NERD, etc. They will always be able to produce so many more babies, sooner than us and cheaper than us (because they have so many hets to work with) that we will never make "big money" on our investments. Could we break even? Sure, probably even make enough to take a nice vacation. But, we aren't going to make the kind of money they are, when we're buying their stock to do it with. Remember, they aren't going to sell more than what they want to. You probably don't get the "pick's of the litter." Best way to get new breeding stock is to produce it yourself, at least in the high end game.

The only way to really make "BIG CASH" is to to either be the person who hatches/ or imports the "next big thing," and then actually know what to do with it. Or wait until these animals come down to earth, buy tons of them, and then start producing them when the price gets low enough that the "general" herp buying public can afford them, so that you can either sell directly to them or wholesale tons of babies to supply that market. One person w/ $10,000 to spend is much harder to find than 1000 w/ $100 (again IMHO).

Even if you do get in early, and actually produce these things when they are still selling for thousands of dollars. How many of those sales are for cash? I would bet that a great deal of them involve trades. If you're Bob Clark and someone wants to trade you 400 baby albino burms for an albino ball that's great. But if you're Joe Blow, what are you going to do with 400 albino burms?

You know, I don't think anything that wasn't fairly predictable happened with the piebald market. I think they'll hit certain price plateaus due to popularity and availability, the same as any other morphs. The trick is finding one where you'll feel comfortable making a purchase. If you breed at one price plateau, you'll likely be selling at the next. Prices will probably be lower -- and maybe much lower -- by the time you've raised and bred babies, but even if you don't make your money back in the first clutch, you're bound to make it back sooner or later as long as the snakes remain alive and productive.

Don't know why we can't edit on this section, but.. should be "if you buy at one price plateau..." not "if you breed at one price plateau.." above. Bleh.

Brian,

That is very true but I think most of us buy the hets to prove them out or try to prove them out to have one of the offspring for ourself.And I dont plan on selling any of the breeder hets myself.And like I have said before I buy all my animals with the plans of keeping them so you are wright sooner or later you SHOULD make some of your money back or we hope we do.But it is still kinda scary buying hets.But if you are in no gurry to prove them out I think it will all work out in the end if you buy your hets from someone that can be trusted and Who stands behind there hets.

Brian,

If you breed at one price plateau, you'll likely be selling at the next.

Interesting concept. Prices obviously drop differently depending on the morph and they follow a stair-step mode just like this:

_a____b_
!____c__
!______

The key is when to enter the market (a) in order to still sell when prices are in b. If the time elapsed between a-->b is greater than the time needed for the animals to reach sexual maturity and breed, one will have to sell more animals in point c but at a lower price.

Going back to the piebalds, the visual morph still has a very decent price compared with other morphs. The interesting thing is the price differential between the heteros and the visual morph for different morphs. A pair of 100% heteros for pieds from a well known breeder go for $3,000, while an average looking pied baby will sell for approximately $7,500 (prices might vary with amount of white). A pair of 100% hetero for albino will go for $1,000, whereas an albino will sell for $2,500. Interestingly enough, there is a 2.5 multiplier for both.

Regards,

Here's why the peid market is so goofy, Seamus tell me what you think?


1) The ratio is WAY of on pricing.

Female pieds are still about $6,500

Female hets are $1,700, I say $1,700 because that's what I paid a year ago. Advertised prices have stayed much higher then the price the animals are selling for as EVERYBODY is scared to advertise a price drop.

Anyway, with that math you can buy 4 hets for the price of one pied and we all know what would produce you more Pieds! The hets would give you double the number of babies for the same price.

The amount of white also has such a huge effect. What's the true price? An albino for the most part is an albino and can be priced as such but a pied is not just a pied or priced at a "going" price.

Some snakes, like the anery hondo and a few others go up as morphs come out.

Another factor that will have a bigger effect on pieds is that it's a pattern morph and as such will be bred to more morphs. This I think will keep the price higher longer then the albinos.

Pieds have more options then albinos and will be "in demand" for morphs longer. The guessing game that I haven't thought about is what sex will hold the price longer as I don't know if people will want pied males for their other morphs or pied females for the mojave and spider males? My guess would be the latter but I'm not sure.

I liked pieds so I work with that morph. I don't care about the others so I don't work with them. From a money standpoint, I knew I wouldn't loose money but didn't care if I made it either.

I think mainly you're going to have a situation next year where the small breeders produce more pieds then the big ones. I think they're going to want to hang onto some but I think the 04 price will be greatly effected by what they choose to do with the market and not by where the bigger breeders want it to go.

Someday, and I look forward to it, the bottom on snake prices is going to have to fall out. Not that Albino Pied Mojaves will be at PetCo anytime soon in their cage with crickets but you know what I'm saying.

I still think het albino males are the best buy ever now! With under $400 you could produce 16 eggs 50% poss het in 04 and raise up say 6 of those to breed in 06, that would give you a great return for the money not to mention being fun!

Considering the job market crashing all over some folks will drop prices just to move an animal or pay a bill . I've noticed price differences on a number of morphs and depending on which you look at the perices will be much different.

A larger breeder , lets say NERD , will keep their prices about the same with no fluctuations.

Joe Schmoe who dumped his lifes savings or took out a loan and has a closet for his collection or limited room and cash for expenses will need to move his babies quicker.

For the most part , the larger breeders aren't really price dropping due to their " buisiness savvy" or knowing what to expect as far as expenses , etc.

a little breeder who hasn't really worked inside the buisiness that mortgages his house to buy an a$$ load of high dollar morphs and has bills coming due or looses his job will drop the bottom out just to get cash to cover whatever is going on in his life.

You also have others that feel there is too much "compition" and will drop prices just move animals faster than the other guy.

I've noticed its not just pieds but some ghosts , spiders and just about anything Dom/CoDOM that is only being sold in males that can be bred to 3-8 females a season.

Let someone think a market is flooding and they will drown you saving themselves.

I worked in the office furniture buisiness for a few years and it was cutthroat with alot of competition and fluctuated very much like the reptile market.Just gotta look at who is dropping their prices and why.

Bryon Adzic

don't know if it helped any or not just my way of looking at it.

Just like the song. I'm really puzzled. To me it is one of the most beautiful morphs out there and there is currenlty very little demand if at al. Well known breeders are offering hetero pairs for $2,000. Awesome looking visuals are offered for $8,000, best offer, or trades. What's going on? People got tired of them? Yellow bellies (with all the genetic doubts they offer) are being asked $15,000; for what... to produce a leucistic snake? A white snake with black eyes??? No doubt about it, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

regards.

One year later and male 100% hetero pieds are going for $250 (and for good source)! I paid $1,250 for mine a year ago and it was a good deal then. A well known breeder told me pairs will never reach the $2,000 mark this year. Well…they are well below that right now. Maybe the new albino-pied will revitalize the market! After all it is still the most popular morph (according to the poll in the ball python discussion forum). Even the visuals are going for less than $5,000. More than 100% drop in prices in just one year! Comparing the % drop, the albinos have maintained their price better.

I was at the Indy show yesterday and the pieds there were at $5500 but I am sure you could have haggled them down to below $5000. I can pick up a 1.1 het pied pair for $1250 now.

Griz