Fortune Tellers have some competition

I would have to agree w/ High End Herps that prices will keep going down and alot of breeders are focused on ball python morphs, but this fortune telling prediction is ridiculous. Visit there website, its on the home page in red. Sorry, but its a good laugh.


Kyle

Did I miss something? What are you talking about?

go to the website and read it.

www.highendherps.com


Kyle

I'm not even going to be polite and say that "I hate to disagree, but..."
(don't worry, I'm not going to be impolite, either)
It really isn't that ridiculous a concept, though I don't expect complete and utter devastation of the BP market this summer. Prices are dropping, in some cases plummeting. Bumblebees were offered at $35,000 in Dec '04 (at least at the shows I attend)...asking prices are about a third of that now, just 18 months later. Obviously, the biggest reductions will be in the dominant/codominant morphs, but simple recessive morphs will be dropping too. Ball pythons are hot right now, but they are also being mass produced, and the market will not support the current prices.

well of course the market will drop, supply and demand. But predicting the market like the stock market of 1929 is laughable.


Kyle

I think its meant to be a joke.


Kyle

It sure doesn't read like a joke to me. It looks like he really thinks this will happen.
Yes, prices will drop this year, just like they do every year. We may even see a larger drop percentage wise, but nothing like what he is describing. In my opinion we are a long way from $400 albinos and $800 pieds.

A couple of parts of his statement seem to stand out though. One, he currently has adult het breeders but he is waiting to breed them until after the crash he is predicting. This doesn't make sense. I'm figuring he only has male hets. If he really expected the market to completely collapse then he would have been trying to produce some to sell before it happened.
The other thing is the four years comment. Where does the 4 years come from anyway? 2002 wasn't the beginning of the large scale morph breeding. It happened gradually really, but 2002 itself wasn't any kind of landmark jump or anything other than in the number of morphs that became available as compared to previous years. Four years seems to have been pulled out of the air and used arbitrarily.

I think we have pretty much seen the end of the $20K+ single morphs. We're just getting started with the double homozygous morphs, and I don't think there has been any triple homozygous at all yet.
The market has hit a peak in some respects, and is currently in a decline pricewise, but the decline in price also opens the market up to a wider consumer base and thereby broadening the demand to an extent.

Even though we're seeing a steady drop in price across the board from year to year, we're not looking at a complete collapse by any means. The ride isn't over, it's just smoothing out as the market matures.

being a poor old herp hobbiest it wouldnt hurt my feelings if prices drop out , but i dont see it happening any time soon . prices may come down a bit but with the continued growth in popularity of ball pythons (and herps in general) i dont see the bottom falling out anytime soon . maybe its a case of wishfull thinking .

Originally Posted by kylekscott

I would have to agree w/ High End Herps that prices will keep going down and alot of breeders are focused on ball python morphs, but this fortune telling prediction is ridiculous. Visit there website, its on the home page in red. Sorry, but its a good laugh.


Kyle

It seems that my prediction was half a month late. I first made this prediction two years ago based upon market trends, supply and demand and the level that the morphs are produced by X number of breeders and the proliferation ability of the species.

Here is a link to a thread started yesterday about a top name breeder that sold a large number of Lesser Platty's for 2500 ea. This is a morph that was 20,000 to 25,000 prior to this dumping of his stock. He also listed and sold a large number of Mojaves for 800. This a morph that previously was several thousand dollars each. It's just the beginning folks. It's one of those times I actually wish I was wrong. I really feel for all the good folks that invested heavily in ball morphs.

David Beauchemin

http://www.ball-pythons.net/forums/s...ad.php?t=33806

Are you kidding?? You are saying you were right based on what a one person did with some morphs this year? Where is the crash?? Just because an ex car salesman decided to blow out some co-doms doesn't mean the market crashed.