Prices tanking and market saturation???

[jack2682]

Has anyone taken an economics class? I haven't....

I can't help but feel like markets values have taken a pretty darn steep dive recently (Bananas totally aside).

I wonder if the growing rate of breeding ball pythons in the market place is accelerating the drop in market values more than we've seen in the last couple years...

Anyone else make this observation, or am I imagining things???

 

[hhmoore]

Too many people overproducing. It's been a growing problem for some time, and it gets worse every year as more and more people get involved.

Think about it, though - these days, very few people start breeding as an extension of their learning...as part of their fascination with these animals. They go from first snake to "collection" before they have experienced keeping them over time. Some are breeding within a year...I've seen people go from first snake to having more breeders than me, in two years (or less). It's easy, right? And they can just sell the babies online...
The problem is that this approach quickly floods the market, so all these people are competing for the same buyers. Most don't have name recognition or reputation, so they get their sales by undercutting prices. Buyers learn that they can often get deals, so many offer offer less and less. "The market" is an ugly place, IMO.
Truth be told (again) - I hate the sales aspect...which is why I haven't produced much over the past few years. I almost went for the sellout in 2013; but there are a couple of things I want to pursue for my own satisfaction...but am I willing to rejoin the fray to do so?

 

[hhmoore]

This is all to the benefit of the entry level buyer and beginning breeder; because the resultant tanking of prices makes morphs more and more affordable. So called base morphs, and even combos, have reached 'first snake' prices.

 

[snowgyre]

The same thing happened with leopard geckos about five years ago, which is why I got out of them. It took too long to sell babies, and when you have such a small collection, you don't have the space to hold onto babies for too long.

I think the same has been happening with ball pythons for a while now, but the reason the market crash is going a bit slower is because of the natural history of the ball pythons themselves. They are a low producing species if you think about it... single clutch per year if you're lucky, with a mean clutch size of about 6 eggs. That's not a whole lot of offspring per animal. Leopard geckos, on the other hand, can give you about 20 eggs a year on average, and can easily breed by the time they're 1 year old. Most ball pythons, especially females, take 2-4 years to breed their first time, and the first clutch is typically small.

I will say that it's tough, as a small breeder with no extra space, to move animals quickly when you urgently need space without undercutting prices. I try not to do it, but inevitably I see people charging regular market prices at the beginning of the season but are then forced to decrease prices by the time winter rolls around. I've got a few animals I wasn't able to sell this summer and now I can't ship them out, so they're taking up valuable rack space. Selling locally isn't easy either.

Thankfully I've never done this for the money, and have built my collection up slowly over the past five years. I doubt I'll ever be in the black financially.

 

[B&C Ball Pythons]

It's as simple and straightforward as Harald described.

 

[j_dunlavy]

I agree with Harald, there is a ball python saturation nowadays.
As a "new breeder" I wanted to throw in a couple pennies though;
I actually have been keeping reptiles since the early '90s but in 2004 I got this girlfriend who made me get rid of my snakes (I kept 2). Needless to say I should have gotten rid of her (the snakes were less dangerous!). Anyway, I had not looked into anything new until 2011 when I got a flyer for the San Jose Reptile expo. I went with my now wife and found a baby woma. My wife loved it, and much to my delight she wanted him. That woma brought back all the old feelings that had been dormant for so long and my wife agreed to let me start a small breeding project. It was like being a kid again.
We spent the past couple years searching for the best looking snakes we could find so that we would end up with some of the best looking babies around. We bought from different bloodlines so we could have a wider genetic pool from the start.

This brings me to ball pythons. Originally I bought a couple nice morphs so that we could breed the hybrid "wall python," (since then I have decided against hybridizing anything). Keeping that superpastel opened up a new can of worms. I started looking into all these crazy morphs and decided the only way to be able to afford them is to make them myself. In a nutshell, I decided to breed ball pythons because I could derive great satisfaction from "making" my own designer snakes. Those that I sell I hope they are able to support my hobby but the money was never the real motive. My wife has even expressed that she is not sure if she will be able to sell "her babies." She loves them and even sits and watches TV with them.

Seeing that balls were saturated I thought I would have some income insurance snakes to help provide for my hobby and got a pair each of several other snakes I had always liked in the past that seem to sell fairly well and are relatively uncommon. I now have womas from 3 bloodlines, western blackheads, ringed pythons, green sanzinias and a plethora of balls. I love each and every one of them.

I have spent a lot of time and money getting setup and if I can pay for my initial expenses and break even that will be good enough for me. If I can make a small profit, even better, but I just want to keep snakes and breeding some of them is just my means to an end where I can keep lots of beautiful animals.

 

[garweft]

Sometimes you have to look at the positive side of things. You can get a cb male pastel for not much more than an imported animal. That is a huge positive when the goal of captive breeding is to take pressure off of wild populations.

 

[irishanaconda]

Well on another good note, Adult female morphs are relativity affordable now to now make that snake u wanted to back in 2009 lol. Im lucky to be even now with the market even after purchasing my supplies so from here on out its all fun for me. But i have a regular job and this was always a hobby for me. The bigger problem i see is the prices of rats.. HOLY CRAP! Its common to see people posting 3$ for a small on craigslist for feeders. Pinkies $1.50 and so on. Im in the wrong hobby, if i had a garage and wanted to make money id breed rats lol.

 

[hhmoore]

Sometimes you have to look at the positive side of things. You can get a cb male pastel for not much more than an imported animal. That is a huge positive when the goal of captive breeding is to take pressure off of wild populations.

The only problem with that statement is that babies and adult females (including gravids) are still imported in quantity; and they still sell. We produce enough babies that they aren't "needed"; but people still dream of catching that new morph. Until Africa shuts down the exportation of ball pythons, there will be a market for the imports.

 

[jntreptiles]

I pretty much agree with everything being said here, although I am just as frustrated with the current market as I am sure many other people are at this moment. As a business owner (completely unrelated to reptiles), I fully understand the concept of supply vs. demand, and that it is truly inevitable that in any market that prices may fall on any given product. However, a few things that I think about often.

I started in the reptile hobby in 1987, there were minimum shows, no internet, no reptiles magazine, no Facebook, and so on. Most all of the breeders out there at that time, were dedicated, loyal reptile enthusiasts or hobbyist that worked with these animals for their shear passion of the animals themselves, myself included, and there are still many of those types of breeders out there today. You didn't really hear words like wholesale, flipper, dealer like has become common place in the language of todays industry.

You see and hear about those so many breeders who are just in it for the money, yet it is funny and sort of contradictive that these people who are so greedy and only want the $ are the ones that I often see selling themselves short by offering animals at discounted prices. So they have made the quick sale, and put $500 in their pocket, but at the same time I just lost $500, because the animal I just sold was worth $1000. Makes no sense to me.

So to end my rambling, this is and will continue to be an ongoing problem within this industry, and it will be the topic of many more discussions. There is not much we are going to do to fix it until we, as breeders, step up and realize that we are the problem, this is a price driven industry and the majority of buyers are price hungry, and as long as we are willing to feed them, the market will not stabilize.

I have been doing this along time, and I have watched many of my acquaintances slowly transform from what was to what is, in this current industry. I still wake up every day loving what I do, working with the collection that I have. I place a value on my animals, and on my time, I place value on the quality of animals that I produce, and the honest core values of the way I have operated my business for over 20 plus years, and while it has become harder, there are still many serious buyers out there that put a value on the animals they purchase, and it will be those people who set the standard in the future of this industry.

Real breeders don't panic

 

[Aristotle2010]

It's a MLM. All the money is made at the top. Unfortunately for a living product. Have fun first if you turn a buck great. The ball industry is driven by collectors that breed to by the next best thing and move up of levels set by price points. If I was buying a pet wouldn't a normal be great. I love ball pythons. Is a lucifer better than a pastel as a pet stand point? Breeding is fun if it wasn't for the breeding aspect ball pythons would not even be a market. IMO the best is already out there and we just have to wait for it to stabilize from a hobbiest stand point. If you want to be like Nerd or BHB you will have to discover a new product and make a market for it. Be aware if it's successful many people will jump on until it burns out. I believe behind most successful people in hobby industries are really selling the dream of their lifestyle to us and not a product. Or as someone mentioned above something that supplies a product to a said industry ie rats or cages.

 

[dumje]

Its a hobby for 90% of us. It has a business side that many do not understand or know how to work either...prices will fall and in some cases go back up based on supply and demand. Supply is high right now on a lot of stuff...so prices are low. As long as I see it as a Hobby...and it is...Im good...still trying to produce many morphs that I want.

 

[j_dunlavy]

You see and hear about those so many breeders who are just in it for the money, yet it is funny and sort of contradictive that these people who are so greedy and only want the $ are the ones that I often see selling themselves short by offering animals at discounted prices. So they have made the quick sale, and put $500 in their pocket, but at the same time I just lost $500, because the animal I just sold was worth $1000. Makes no sense to me.

So to end my rambling, this is and will continue to be an ongoing problem within this industry, and it will be the topic of many more discussions. There is not much we are going to do to fix it until we, as breeders, step up and realize that we are the problem, this is a price driven industry and the majority of buyers are price hungry, and as long as we are willing to feed them, the market will not stabilize.

I have been doing this along time, and I have watched many of my acquaintances slowly transform from what was to what is, in this current industry. I still wake up every day loving what I do, working with the collection that I have. I place a value on my animals, and on my time, I place value on the quality of animals that I produce, and the honest core values of the way I have operated my business for over 20 plus years, and while it has become harder, there are still many serious buyers out there that put a value on the animals they purchase, and it will be those people who set the standard in the future of this industry.

Real breeders don't panic

This is the best description of where I am hoping to go as a hobby breeder. I do have to start somewhere but I am in this for the long run. I have no expectations of becoming the next BHB or NERD and to be constantly searching for the next new morph is not realistic (the big boys have buyers in Africa to do that for them). I place high value on my animals and will price their offspring accordingly.
If my hobby can support itself I will be happy; mainly that means I can afford to get some new snakes.

When I bought my female superpastel, the breeder had her priced at $550 and she was only a couple weeks old (at the time the average superpastel female was selling for $400-$450 for a larger girl). The breeder gave us a pair price for our black pastels but would not reduce the price for this superpastel because she was exceptional. The black pastels cost us more than the going rate too. I do not have any problem with the way this went down. What we got were exceptional snakes, the breeder we bought them from has pride in her animals and will not undervalue them. As a buyer, I know better than to undervalue what I am puchasing, that will come back around to bite me in the long run. Most of the time I don't even bother to haggle over the price: if the animal looks awesome and I am willing to pay, it is worth the price.
These babies are now around 1000+ grams and have better color than some of the best looking hatchlings.

Whether or not I make money remains to be seen. I do see those in it for the money come and go as a result, so those with $ in their eyes will fade and prices will rise again. I am happy enough just to have a place in a hobby that is so satisfying. First thing I do in the morning and last thing I do at night is look in on my snakes; that is how it will be regardless of the money.

 

[hhmoore]

When I bought my female superpastel, the breeder had her priced at $550 and she was only a couple weeks old (at the time the average superpastel female was selling for $400-$450 for a larger girl). The breeder gave us a pair price for our black pastels but would not reduce the price for this superpastel because she was exceptional. The black pastels cost us more than the going rate too. I do not have any problem with the way this went down. What we got were exceptional snakes, the breeder we bought them from has pride in her animals and will not undervalue them. As a buyer, I know better than to undervalue what I am puchasing, that will come back around to bite me in the long run. Most of the time I don't even bother to haggle over the price: if the animal looks awesome and I am willing to pay, it is worth the price.
These babies are now around 1000+ grams and have better color than some of the best looking hatchlings.

Whether or not I make money remains to be seen. I do see those in it for the money come and go as a result, so those with $ in their eyes will fade and prices will rise again. I am happy enough just to have a place in a hobby that is so satisfying. First thing I do in the morning and last thing I do at night is look in on my snakes; that is how it will be regardless of the money.

Luckily, there are still a lot of us that take this approach; but I can't help but feel we are in the minority. Somebody has to buy/breed the uglier animals, though...they're the ones that make ours look so good. Of course, the get it cheap mentality that goes along with that impacts us all.

 

[j_dunlavy]

Luckily, there are still a lot of us that take this approach; but I can't help but feel we are in the minority. Somebody has to buy/breed the uglier animals, though...they're the ones that make ours look so good. Of course, the get it cheap mentality that goes along with that impacts us all.

so true, so true.

 

[darkbloodwyvern]

Sadly, this happens in nearly any market. The sad part is that even good quality snakes get undervalued this way. I'm not rich and I do tend to have to compromise to get a cool morph. I can't afford a highway ball but I'll still paid a good price for my fire YB boy. I had the opportunity to get one $200 cheaper but it had a deformity that I found out about last minute. I like my boy much better anyways and I'm glad I waited! Usually the steal prices are more a ripoff than a deal if you aren't careful! The hobbiests and big established breeders can ride out the craze if they are smart/patient enough. It's just too bad the quality of the morphs suffers and it's also sad there are and will be many snakes that are less wanted because of this. I just wish the snakes didn't pay the hardest price, as always, for human mistakes..

Also, not that I don't find snakes I think are ugly or bland, but one man's trash... Some people actually like certain looks that might be considered ugly or substandard. If the animal is healthy and not carrying some messed up genes, I try to not get too judgemental, hard as that is ;D

 

[jack2682]

Good points... I hear over and over that the ball python market is simple economics... Supply and demand etc. But when I brought up saturation, I was kinda thinking along the lines of multi-level market, like Ed said. I cannot agree that there is a natural rise and fall in ball python prices... Since I started breeding in 2009, prices have only gone one direction. Why? B/c the supply is procreating. And the only thing to change demand is more and more new breeders... Which I don't think are growing at a rate to compete with the supply... The proof? prices aren't stable.

As a hobby guy, it's great! The animals I want to produce are just getting cheaper and cheaper... Which means more and more people can afford to be hobby breeders, which means more snakes and more babies....

But back to market saturation... Any large company, take McDonalds for example, has full time people analyzing sales and the market in any given area... If more money can be made, they will build another McDonalds... If it can't, they wont. Have you ever seen four McDonalds at one intersection?

I don't care that I can't quit my day job and just breed snakes...I am happy as can be just producing a few clutches a year. But, I am wondering if we will eventually get to a point that we won't even be able to give away what we produce. Then what?

 

[hhmoore]

Then people will either keep BPs because they like them, jump to the next big thing, or get out of the game. When enough people stop breeding them, things will stabilize.

The popularity of BPs is largely an effect of the morph explosion.
I remember ball pythons before morphs...and I wasn't a fan. When I got my first few, for my own project, I still didn't like them all that much. It took a few years for me to develop an appreciation; and it's still sort of hard to admit that I finally did.
They've been great for the hobby, in that they've inspired interest and excitement...but, and I can say this in all honesty, I liked things better before.
I remember looking forward to shows; and the anticipation of finding something to bring home with me. The variety is largely gone now. Part of that is due to the trend toward Captive Born Only shows - what we see now are the popular, easy to breed species. Another part - at least for shows local to me - is the state legislation restricting what we can keep (though even the once beloved Hamburg show has long since fallen pretty to the monotony, and PA doesn't have those asinine laws).

 

[Southernvaper]

I have read everypost and the generality of everything i agree......to kinda of refresh the post a bit for 2014......What are the top selling snakes the ones you guys would call the investment BP's for 2014?? Obviously not so much the single gene base morphs even though they are needed to some extent by many.

The dreamsicles are the ones that have caught my eye as it seems most (not all) breeders are only selling the hets at this point. I am curious as to your opinoins of what is selling now.....

I do not have dreams of breedinng for cash at all but would like to start off with a couple of awesome babies whose value may decrease a little slower then others.

 

[hhmoore]

To get your money back on the first clutch (aka have animals that are going to depreciate more slowly), you have to start with animals that have either already tanked, or dig deep in your pocket for the new stuff that hasn't even started to drop in price. If you aren't in a position to lead the market, you're going to chase it. My recommendation is to work with what you like - do that, and the pricing becomes less of a concern.