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Hurricane Irma

WebSlave

It is what it is, but certainly not what it was.
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Well the forecast track I have been watching has changed drastically from what I saw yesterday. Now the track shows it heading directly for Miami, and then abruptly making a northerly turn right before land fall. So it seems obvious that they really don't know what it is going to do and everyone on the east coast of the USA needs to keep a sharp eye out for this storm.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=34.4;-72.6;3&l=rain-3h&t=20170911/06&w=soft
 
Yeah, the models changed a lot since yesterday for sure. Most of the models yesterday suggested it was either going to make landfall in South Carolina or go out to sea.

That's a neat website though! Bookmarking it.
 
I have family on the east coast. Depending on the track they may be visiting for a while.

At least I have a mountain range between me and the coast so by the time we get affected by a hurricane it's just some rain and some wind that moves in and through quickly, no different than any other summer storm.
 
The fact that the track changed so much concerns me that IRMA COULD wind up slipping into the Gulf of Mexico and then making that turn northward.

That would mean "time to get out of dodge" for us. Just have to find some place not flooded out by Harvey to visit, I guess.
 
Well, their forecast has changed yet again. Now they are saying Irma will skirt the northern edge of Cuba and come up into the Gulf, with landfall around Marco Island.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.8;-80.4;5&l=wind&t=20170911/06&w=soft

Subject to change without warning, of course. Seems like every subsequent forecast is bringing the track further west.
 
Well they revised the forecast again. Now they are showing landfall at Homestead, FL on Monday, 09-11 with Irma just chewing up the east coast of Florida on it's way north.

Of course, that is a week away, and with the forecast changing as much and as often as it has lately, I expect the actual landfall might be dramatically different from what they are predicting right now. But still, might be a good idea to keep an eye on this one.
 
I'm hoping that you don't get whomped by a hurricane. The problem sometimes is by the time the forecasters tell you it is coming your way, streets are flooding and it is hard to get out.
 
I saw where Irma is a Category 5 with 175 mph winds and headed for Florida, maybe you should get the heck out of there.
 
Still not sure when the hurricane is going to turn though. Florida is certainly going to be hit somewhere. I'm guessing this weekend will be a busy travel day for much of Florida. I'm expecting schools and colleges here in south Georgia to be shut down on Monday, similar to what happened last year with Harvey.
 
I have friends in the Caribbean (St Maarten and Saba) who have Irma on their doorstep right now at category 5. It's gonna be a rough ride for these guys, Puerto Rico next by the looks of things.
 
Yeah, I saw reports of wind gusts up to 225 mph. I don't think much would be able to stand against that. Anyway, I'm just going to watch the forecast and be ready to roll out of here if that looks prudent to do.

Maybe this would be the time for us to take that trip out to Texas. Oh, wait.... :face_palm_02:
 
It certainly doesn't look too good for Florida at the moment, but I'd think if anyone was prepared for this, it would be you, Rich. Hope it passes you quickly and with as little impact as possible.

My friends in the Caribbean are dive business owners, and their main problem is going to be deciding where on earth might be safe to put their boats. I used to work in that industry myself, and I remember trying to get everything tied up safely, and then having to just go home, batten down the hatches and hope.

I now live in a country where we get cyclones on a regular basis, and have very poor infrastructure to help deal with it. Here are a few precautions we regularly take when we know something's heading our way. Hope some of them might be helpful.

1. If at all possible invest in a small portable generator and fill several fuel tanks. It doesn't have to run your whole house, but a even quite small one can keep a fridge, fan, one TV or computer and one or two lights going, and that's enough to help a lot.

2. Fill bathtubs, ice chests, garbage bins, anything you have, with tap water. We have a 500 litre (125 gallon) rotamould tank we keep filled all year just in case. Also kids' inflatable paddling pools can be used. Water can be chlorinated with bleach (8 drops per gallon) if needed for drinking.

3. Stock up on cooking fuel - we get gas from cylinders, and keep an extra cylinder on hand. If you are all electric, consider getting a small portable barbecue and as much charcoal as you can manage. You may also be able to get fallen wood after the storm is over. Make sure you have matches/lighters.

4. Solar lanterns (www.dlight.com) are invaluable if your power goes out. Or stock up on battery lanterns/flashlights, batteries and candles.

5. Bring in anything loose from outdoors - garden furniture, pot plans, etc.

6. Bring furniture into the centre of the room, away from windows and doors. Stand water-damageable items on top of tables and kitchen surfaces. Cover with tarpaulins or any large sheets of plastic you can get, tied or taped down. Cover electronics in garbage bags etc. Obviously if you are in flood prone areas and have a 2-storey house, take all soft furnishings and electronic items you can carry upstairs. If not, unplug all electrical items.

7. Get masking or parcel tape and stick it in large "X's across glass windows. to prevent shattering if hard items blow against them. Draw curtains.

8. Leave at last one window at the front and back of each room very slightly open - windows in fully sealed rooms can actually implode from increased outdoor pressure. Keep mops and buckets handy, and roll towels up under doors and windows.

9. Make an emergency waterproof grab-bag in case of evacuation: it should include all vital documents such as birth/ marriage certificates, passports, credit cards etc, first aid kit, any medications you have to take regularly, flashlight or solar lantern, garbage bags, water bottles, snacks (granola bars are good) one set of warm clothes for everyone, blankets. House and car keys.

10. Move your car away from trees. Fill up with fuel.

11. Cook all food in your fridge/ freezer while you can, and re-freeze. Pack any empty space in the fridge/freezer with newspaper, or bottles of water. This will keep it colder for longer if the power is out (as well as being more water storage). Stock up on tinned food that can be eaten cold (beans, fruit etc).

12. Charge mobile devices, and back up battery packs.

13. STAY INDOORS during the storm. More people get killed by flying objects than direct storm damage, and a coconut coming at you horizontally is no joke....(although it certainly sounds like one...:))

There's lots more, and I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir, but it's things to think about while you still have time to put these in place.

Hope everyone stays as safe as possible.
 
Looks like they revised the track a bit east from what they showed yesterday. Pretty much back to what it was 2 days ago.

Connie and I ran out to Sam's Club yesterday and the place was mobbed. Lots of people buying batteries and other stuff that looked like emergency rations and supplies. We then stopped in at the Publix grocery store, and they were completely sold out of bottled water in all forms. Remind me not to go out on shopping errands when a hurricane is in the forecast. The only reason we went out was because I had to return a loaner hedge trimmer the local Stihl dealer let me try out, and since we were out anyway, decided to run a few errands.

The media appears to be hyping up the storm as "the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic." I was watching a video showing how the storm was even registering on seismic detectors in the area.

If the storm's center moves far enough to the east of us, we won't have any notable weather here beyond a little wind, and probably no associated wind. If it makes landfall close to us to the west, then that's when things would get hairy. Hopefully it will just swing even further eastward and just stay out in the Atlantic. Of course many of the Caribbean islands are pretty much screwed. Waves are close to 50 ft. high near the eye.

If I lived in the Miami/Homestead area, I would be making preparations NOW. You probably can't find generators in south Florida at all at this point. And my guess is that all of the dealers have terminated their return policies on them, for those people intending to just "borrow" them for the duration of the storm.
 
The good news is the storm is travelling fast - my friends in Saba report it is already past them, blue skies and no major damage (but no news on the boats which are in harbour in St Maarten yet). St Maarten, not many miles away, looks like a lot of building and vehicle damage. In my experience, a strong hurricane that passes over you quickly does dramatic damage, but the slow ones that hang around and flood you for days do more in the long run.

Unfortunately there's another one building right behind it, and storms that come close together, affected by the same prevailing weather conditions, usually follow the same tracks pretty closely, so there's more to come.

I think if I was in Florida right now, and had the option, I'd be evacuating. Can't imagine what you do with 200 reptiles James, I guess they can survive without heat at this time of year if your power goes off.

Another useful tip that I just gleaned from hurricane coverage - a good place to store valuable documents/ photos/ delicate stuff is in the dishwasher if you have one; not likely to be moved around and waterproof (but I might want to ensure power/water to it is turned off.....) I guess the same applies to empty fridges too.

The rush for bottled water baffles me - why aren't people storing tap water? Is it really not safe to drink, or is it just fashion?
 
I've now seen photos from St Maarten, and I think, as usual, how worried you should be about this storm depends on your location and the construction of your home.

There were large storm surges that flooded low lying coastal areas, and many smaller houses lost tin roofs and in some cases cement and concrete walls cracked and broke. A lot of trees came down and brought electricity lines with them. Many vehicles were damaged and flooded out. Small and medium sized boats (yachts and cruise ship transfer vessels) have been thrown up onto shore. Apparently on the northern half of the island the four largest buildings were badly damaged. Some beach bars have been buried in sand.

Having said that, the place where I used to work, an 8 storey concrete hotel right on the seafront of the main town on the south coast, seems to be fine, maybe some superficial damage, but windows, walls and roof seem intact from the initial photos. However the pier and boardwalk were taken out. Other hotels have lost roof sections on exposed hill tops, but main structures seem to have survived.

So, I'd say rationally assess your house. If you're over a mile from shore, in a sheltered area, don't have large trees overhanging your place, are on higher ground and have a well constructed and maintained building, then store some food, fuel and water, board up and sit it out.

However if you are close to shore, on flat ground liable to flood, and your building might be a bit on the shaky side, I'd be getting out now. I've sat through Hurricanes and Cyclones, and it sounds exciting and glamorous at first but the reality is uncomfortable and dull - unless it gets dangerous and terrifying. And remember there's another one close behind, so this might be days shut up at home without power, communications or entertainment.

Wishing you all in the potential storm path all the best, whatever your choices are.

PS - just started a new thread in the hopes that some of you can share tips on how to prepare for hurricanes, for general home, but maybe also for reptile collection survival purposes.
http://www.faunaclassifieds.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2027588&posted=1#post2027588
 
Well Florida it was nice knowing ya...
lm52cM0.png
 
Yeah, it's a big one. The islands near the eye were devastated in the Carribbean.

Rich have you decided to stay or are you getting out? (I don't have a very clear idea of Florida's geography, sorry, so not sure if you're in the projected path).

The good news is it currently looks as though the next one (Jose) will go north earlier, so may miss Florida.
 
As long as the center of Irma doesn't come over into the Gulf of Mexico, we should be OK. Being on the west side of a hurricane here isn't nearly as bad as being on the east or northeast side. So if this one was making landfall of the eye directly here, in Apalachicola or even as far out as Panama City, yeah we would be bailing.

The track seems to be wandering a bit, so I'm still watching it VERY closely.
 
I live in Tifton, Georgia. I-75 is a madhouse and is stop-and-go all the way to Atlanta northbound. Southbound has far less traffic but the constant string of utility and support vehicles is impressive. I'm not sure where they're staging. A minor riot broke out in Walmart in Valdosta over bottled water (which I personally find incredibly stupid) and arrests were made. Every hotel in Valdosta and Tifton is booked solid, and hotels have made recommendations for folks to go as far north as Tennessee to find lodging (which I also find ridiculous, there are other options). Shelters on the Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College will be opening at 6PM today. Classes have been canceled throughout south Georgia until Wednesday. It's only supposed to be a category one to tropical storm by the time it reaches here, but it's still expected to cause a lot of damage. I'm warily eyeing all the weak pecan trees around my house. We'll see.
 
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