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Hurricane Irma

This is what I'm watching: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

al112017.png


Several of those models have the eye over the water as it heads north.
 
bcr229 said:
This is what I'm watching: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

Several of those models have the eye over the water as it heads north.
Click to expand...

Ah, yes it does. Thank you. How long have they been showing this much more accurate prediction than what I have been watching? Seems like the other models I've been watching are pretty much useless. Honestly, Connie is pretty pissed that those people can't seem to be able to figure out what is going on. And quite likely they are pulling in big bucks doing a job they appear to be incompetent to hold down. I wonder how many people have evacuated that it turns out they didn't need to, and people who now should have started evacuating days ago have been caught with their pants down? They should be VERY glad that I am not their boss.

Anyway, this is not good. I've been checking other models and they seem to be indicating a weakening of the storm, but that would be cancelled out for us as the actual center will be CLOSER. And I think being over water would likely call for a strengthening too.

Connie and I already talked today about the possibility of just jumping in the Jeep after packing a few things and bailing out westward. Hope for the best with finding gasoline. We can just sleep in the Jeep, so not too worried about finding a motel along the way. Can always park in any Walmart parking lot for the night, if necessary. As long as we can outrace the storm coming up this way, then that would be the goal.

On the good side of this, not too many high population density areas where voluntary or otherwise evacuations will be putting a ton of people on the roadways. The exodus from the Atlantic side of Florida will likely slow down to a trickle, which may mean gasoline supply could catch up with demand along the chosen evacuation routes.

I am certain we will lose power here anyway. As far as how long it will be out, that could be anyone's guess. I'm sure most of the resources for restoring power will be concentrated in south Florida.

Well, guess I will sleep on that decision. See how bad the forecast track looks in the morning.

Aarrrgghhh.....
 
I wish you well. It may already be too late to run, and the news says that many have already lost power.
 
My recommendation would be to make this into a lightly packed road trip and go before you cannot go, Rich. Gasoline supply out here was exhausted by Thursday or Friday.
 
WebSlave said:
Ah, yes it does. Thank you. How long have they been showing this much more accurate prediction than what I have been watching? Seems like the other models I've been watching are pretty much useless.
Click to expand...
They're just showing many models, not the few you have been watching. Also they only update every 12 hours where I think NWS/NOAA is updating hourly now.

If I had to run I would go west, as most people who evacuated FL's east coast went north into GA and the Carolinas.
 
Well, there is apparently a jog in the track to the east, so I'm going to hold tight to see where this is going. I just don't want to see it moving west out into the Gulf and then showing up on my doorstep as a Cat 5 after strengthening the entire trip up the Gulf coast of Florida. The Jeep is all packed up and we can leave at a moment's notice. The gastank is filled up, so we could get 300 miles before NEEDING to find gasoline. I checked and the gasoline situation in Pensacola, which is about 200 miles from us, and things look good out that way if we need to be heading there. I'm feeling a bit better about the situation after seeing the projected tracks move the center of the storm further east of us. Yeah, I know that could change in an instant, but unless I feel we REALLY need to be on the road out of harm's way, I would rather stay here and off of the roads. Even with the center of the storm being east of us, the effects will stretch all the way to Pensacola too. So I would rather have tropical storm force winds and CAT 1 hurricane force winds HERE while in the house than while out on the road in the Jeep. But CAT 2 and above, I would try to get out of the way.

I actually found a website showing street cams here in Florida, which is showing traffic to actually be light all along route I-10. -> https://fl511.com/ So I'm thinking that gas stations all along the way would be able to replenish the supply without it being sucked dry as quickly as they can get the gasoline resupplied.

Connie and I talked about the potential of having the house destroyed by falling trees, and she is already thinking about the floor layout of the new house we would have to have built. Now that certainly would put a big dent in the retirement funds, but life would go on. And that gives her something to occupy her mind, too.

We already have windy conditions with scattered showers here. The power even flickered off momentarily.

We pulled the chimes off of the porch this morning and did all we could to secure anything that could get blown around. I guess I am apprehensive about the power going out too early and then we would just be blind to any changes in the track after that. I guess that is when my new fangled smart phone might actually earn it's keep. I have enough UPS battery packs and generators that I could keep it charged up.

Well, we'll just have to see how things go from here. Glad I stocked up on Excedrin from the server move crap.
 
Looks like every bit of Florida is going to get hammered by Irma.
 

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I think (hope) it's going to lose a lot of power by the time it reaches you, Rich. It's only over the sea for a short while, and unless it jinks dramatically I think it's going to spend most of the wind power over land before it gets to Tallahassee.

However I do see that tornadoes are becoming a real possibility, and I'm not sure I'd want to be out in a jeep if that happens... You're quite far from the coast I assume? If so you're proof against the worst danger of storm surge which, personally, would be the only thing that would drive me out of my house at this point.
 
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Yeah, we aren't in any sort of flood area, and honestly in all the years we have lived here, never seen it even get closed to flooding. Heavy rains can build up water quickly, but the porous sandy soils soak it up quickly.

Tornadoes are definitely a possibility, but I think it will be more of a problem on the Atlantic side with the bands coming onshore there.

We've still got power here, but not sure how long that will hold up once Irma gets closer. And with the number of people who are going to be without power in Florida from this, I'm not expecting power to be restored very quickly.

Connie and I spent the day putting bolts in the beams of the roof of the garage. When it was built, for some reason they only put bolts in 2 of the 4 holes holding the beams together. I did ask them about it, and they said it was spec. I talked to the guys who made the garage, and they agreed. Well, maybe spec, but I think 4 bolts holding the garage together during a hurricane will be MUCH better than just 2. So I've had the bolts, washers, lock washers and nuts for a couple of years sitting in the cabinet, and felt TODAY was the day to tackle that task.

Anyway, hoping for the best...
 
Good idea with the extra bolts, for sure. In the islands, many roofs are only nailed on, and that's why so many get torn off.

The forecasts I'm seeing have Irma down to a cat 1 or 2 by the time it's in your area, and in other good news the one behind, H Jose, seems to be losing power and turning north already, so I don't think that's going to be a problem for you, just got to get through this one.
 
Power is finally out here. Several trees and large limbs have come down. None on the house so far, but it is very early. We are not even at the more intense stretch for this area yet.
 
Good luck Nick, hope you have plenty of batteries. News I'm seeing from south Florida seems to suggest its passing through fairly quickly, so hopefully the worst will only be for a few hours. Not fun when it happens at night though.
 
Thank you. I should be okay for light and cellular charge. The concern of nighttime is correct for sure. The big trees here give me around 2 to as many as 5 seconds if one is coming down when I can see them. They give me no predictive ability in the dark, unfortunately. I know one is coming down by the sound, but not the direction of the fall without sight. One came down last autumn that would have bisected my house if it had happened to have fallen towards it. Good times.
 
Yes, much as we like the big trees, I have finally come to terms (after power lines were taken out 3 times, and one direct hit on my car) with the fact we can't have them too close to the house, so now we have a tree massacre at the start of every cyclone season. Last year we had one we missed come down into my garden, which would have hit one of three houses if it had fallen in any direction other than it did.

Not much you can do at this point though - and even if one comes down, you don't want to be out at night, in the storm, messing with it. Hope the morning brings some relief. Are you away from the coast?
 
Batten down the hatches then, and hope to hear from you in the morning. It's still daytime here so I'll be monitoring for the next few hours, I'll post if I get any new information that you guys might be missing.
 
Hope you get power restored pretty quickly, Nick, and none of your trees come down. We've got one VERY large pine tree near the old reptile building that I swear, no matter what direction I look at it, it seems to be leaning in the other direction. But today it sure looked like it was leaning towards the reptile and mouse buildings. Connie has her prize pomelo tree between the two buildings, which really helps protect it in the few cold nights we have every Winter, and she has 10 HUMONGOUS fruits on it this year. I mean, no joke, they are close to the size of her head! She would be heartbroken to have that pine tree crush it.

The forecast for his area has downgraded to where we are only going to be expecting tropical storm class winds. Still nothing to sneeze at, but a LOT better than what I had really been expecting.

Had a couple of micro flickers of the lights as power blipped. Maybe speaking too soon, but I'm feeling like we really dodged a bullet with this one. Had it come up the Gulf and stayed over water all the way up to Tallahassee, it would have likely buzzsawed the entire western coast of Florida along the way before devastating the capitol (and me along with it) at landfall.

Of course, it's not over yet till the fat lady sings, but with any luck, just going to be some heavy rains and some wind around here tomorrow and tomorrow night. I'm not complaining.
 
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