Bad Guy Jason Felong - sold me a het that didn't prove out

[demonicreptile]

I purchased a cinnamon het albino ball python female from Jason Felong, username crazygecko, back in January 2011. The original add can be seen here: http://www.faunaclassifieds.com/forums/showthread.php?t=214026 and in the screen shot below. It clearly says in the ad that he produced her himself from an albino x cinnamon cross, which means she was a 100% het albino. She has only ever been with my albino male. She produced 2 clutches for me, totaling 11 eggs. No albinos. The probability of an albino x het albino producing 0 albinos in 11 eggs is 0.05%, proving her out as NOT a het albino. I have contacted Jason through e-mail and fauna pm, and I have gotten no response. Our original correspondence is incomplete, as it was back in 2011, but I will post what I have. I will also post pictures of my female, which you will be able to see is the same one in his original sale ad.

"Female Cinnamon het albino
Reptiles
x

jason felong <[email protected]>
12/13/10

to me
Hi, I just got your message. When I get home from work today I will snap some pics of her and send them to you.
For a payment plan I usualy do 20% down and give 1 month to pay the purchase off but can stretch out the payment plan longer if talked about ahead of time.
I also take payment thru paypal.

Thank you,
Jason"


"
PayPal


Hello Kelsey Benkoski,

Your payment for $560.00 USD to [email protected] has been sent.

It may take a few moments for this transaction to appear in the Recent Activity list on your Account Overview.


Payment details

Amount: $560.00 USD
Transaction Date: January 7, 2011
Transaction ID: 1X954613XA3684102

Subject: You've got money!

Message:
Hey Jason, Here is the rest of the money that I owe you for the Cinnamon het albino female. -Kelsey
View the details of this transaction online"

"Kelsey Benkoski <[email protected]>
May 13 (11 days ago)

to jason
Dear Jason,

I know it's been a while, but I'm writing to inform you that your cinnamon het albino I purchased from you in 2011 has not proved out. She has only ever been with my albino male. She laid a 4 egg clutch in 2012 with no albinos. With a small clutch like that, I wasn't concerned no albinos popped out. No eggs in 2013. This year she laid 7 eggs, they just pipped and no albinos. That's 11 eggs without an albino. The odds of that happening are 1/2048 or .05%, which is significant enough to consider her not a het albino. I wasted a huge amount of my time and effort to raise and breed this snake to find out she is not a het albino - 3 years. I realize it's been a long time since our transaction took place, but proving out a het takes time. I'm not sure what could make this right at this point, but I'll give you a few days to respond with your thoughts. Otherwise, I'm just going to post my experiences on the boi and be done with it.

Kelsey"

 

[demonicreptile]

Picture 1 is my albino male and the cinnamon "het" albino I purchased from Jason.

Picture 2 is this years clutch of that same pairing.

 

[Celtic Constrictors]

Not taking sides here but just because you struck out on producing a visual albino doesn't mean she isn't het. She might not be, but she still might. I'm pretty sure the calculation of odds needs to be per litter and not total number of eggs produced. Just like a new roll of the dice.

That being said, have you pointed Mr. Fenlong to this. BOI post via email? I'd like to hear both sides. I hope you didn't get taken.

 

[Celtic Constrictors]

Correction to my above post. I meant clutch. Sorry for the mistake. I don't do ball pythons.

 

[dvangorp]

Not producing a visible after 11 eggs does not prove out a non-het, only bad luck. Percentage-wise you have a 50/50 chance of a visible per egg. You cannot calculate odds at a clutch level.

Granted, maybe she is not a het but then it could just be really bad luck.

We bred a proven het clown female to a visible clown and produced 6 het females. Not a visible in the bunch.

 

[demonicreptile]

When you breed an albino to a het albino, the chances of EACH baby to be an albino is 50% or 1/2. For two babies in a row to be non-albino , the odds calculations are (1/2) * (1/2). So your odds of having two non-albinos in a row are 1/4. Three non-albino babies in a row are (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) or 1/8 and so on. It's like flipping a penny heads 11 times in a row and getting heads each time. You can never say 100% that any animal is not a het. But statistically, the cinnamon I purchased is 99.95% not a het with 11 in a row not coming out albino.

dvangorp - odds of getting 6 non-clowns in a row in a clown x het clown breeding is 1/64. In my case with 11 eggs in a row, it is 1/2048 - a drastically smaller probability.

I sent Mr. Felong an e-mail on 5-13-14 and a PM on 5-17-14, which is posted above. It stated without a reply, I was posting here, which I have on 5-24.

 

[Celtic Constrictors]

You should email him a link to this thread.

 

[Shiari]

I had a corn snake that, when paired to a butter gave me a total of 19 eggs... of which one was a butter and the rest were normals and amels.

The odds of no caramels in the other 18 eggs? 0.0003%

 

[dvangorp]

You are correct in your math if you are trying to determine the sequencing probability, meaning the order in which hets vs visibles would hatch. Each egg has only two possibilities in this scenario ... het or visible therefore you have a 50/50 chance per egg.

Possibly this example where a female lays 10 eggs will explain things better.

There are two alleles for each trait but only one is passed to the embryo from each parent.

You have 2 bags of marbles, one for the female that contains 10 black marbles and 10 white marbles.

The bag representing the visible male has 20 white marbles.

Select one marble from each bag and the combination will represent either a het or a visible. white/white equals a visible. white/black equals a het.

It is possible (while highly improbable) that you would select all 10 black marbles from the bag representing the female resulting in all hets but it could happen.

I know of several situation where it took 3-5 breedings before a visible hatched. Granted, not the norm but more common than you would think.

Checkout this link http://ballpython.com/index.php?page=genetically and scroll to the bottom and read the last paragraph.

 

[Celtic Constrictors]

You are correct in your math if you are trying to determine the sequencing probability, meaning the order in which hets vs visibles would hatch. Each egg has only two possibilities in this scenario ... het or visible therefore you have a 50/50 chance per egg.

Possibly this example where a female lays 10 eggs will explain things better.

There are two alleles for each trait but only one is passed to the embryo from each parent.

You have 2 bags of marbles, one for the female that contains 10 black marbles and 10 white marbles.

The bag representing the visible male has 20 white marbles.

Select one marble from each bag and the combination will represent either a het or a visible. white/white equals a visible. white/black equals a het.

It is possible (while highly improbable) that you would select all 10 black marbles from the bag representing the female resulting in all hets but it could happen.

I know of several situation where it took 3-5 breedings before a visible hatched. Granted, not the norm but more common than you would think.

Checkout this link http://ballpython.com/index.php?page=genetically and scroll to the bottom and read the last paragraph.

Thanks for the clarification. Odds and statistics are not my strong suit but I was sure there was a miscalculation.

I'll await a response from the accused before further assessment of the situation.

 

[smigon]

It's like flipping a penny heads 11 times in a row and getting heads each time. You can never say 100% that any animal is not a het. But statistically, the cinnamon I purchased is 99.95% not a het with 11 in a row not coming out albino.
.

If you flip a penny and get heads 11 times in a row, the 12th time will still be 50/50. The hundredth time will still be 50/50.

 

[nickolasanastasiou]

It seems like some folks do get and some folks do not get that each zygote is an independent statistical event.

 

[silverishness]

Maybe after a few more clutches and she still doesn't prove out would I really be suspecting foul play. But right now, only after one clutch... Just sounds like bad luck to me. Either way, that still sucks.

 

[Celtic Constrictors]

Maybe after a few more clutches and she still doesn't prove out would I really be suspecting foul play. But right now, only after one clutch... Just sounds like bad luck to me. Either way, that still sucks.

It was two clutches but one of them was extremely small at only 4 eggs...

 

[Guy Castro]

If you flip a penny and get heads 11 times in a row, the 12th time will still be 50/50. The hundredth time will still be 50/50.

What are the odds of getting heads 11 times in a row?

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/489055/flipping-heads-10-times-in-a-row

 

[SIGNATURE DESIGN EXOTICS]

I have to agree with op odds are its not a het. Is it possible? Yes but 11 eggs two clutch's on a single ressive should have seen at least one albino by now. Good luck

 

[Craig Wyatt]

I bred a het albino to a het albino and got 7 eggs. Every single one if the babies hatched out albino. This was my luckiest clutch I've ever produced to date. The odds of that happening were like winning a lottery. So what I'm saying is you could just have had an extremely unlucky clutch. I'm not saying that your cinny is a het though. But if you don't produce any albinos next round I would guess you got ripped off. Don't give up quite yet. There is still a small window open

 

[SIGNATURE DESIGN EXOTICS]

I bred a het albino to a het albino and got 7 eggs. Every single one if the babies hatched out albino. This was my luckiest clutch I've ever produced to date. The odds of that happening were like winning a lottery. So what I'm saying is you could just have had an extremely unlucky clutch. I'm not saying that your cinny is a het though. But if you don't produce any albinos next round I would guess you got ripped off. Don't give up quite yet. There is still a small window open

Yes you got lucky.lol but this was 11eggs two clutch's that's like hitting unlucky lottory twice odds are not that bad. What if next year no albino just bad luck again. He should have seen one. Either way congrats on your clutch hope it was when albinos were still worth something. Lol

 

[nickolasanastasiou]

At some point, you just have to make a call. I would give this another clutch.

 

[guyguy69]

Cinny het

You now have at least 11 100% het albino cinnamon's now