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Possible hurricane - 2022 (Ian)

WebSlave

WebSlave

It is what it is, but certainly not what it was.
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https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.1;-81.6;4&l=wind-10m&t=20220929/2100

Worth keeping an eye on if you live along the Gulf of Mexico or anywhere in Florida. When I checked it yesterday (Monday) it had a bullseye right on Crawfordville, FL. Now it is swinging further east to be coming in at Tampa Bay. But it's a forecast over a week in the future, so it could really make landfall just about anywhere.
 

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Well damn..... :ack2:
 

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Forecast is moving landfall further west. But I sure wouldn't wish an encore on Mexico Beach....
 

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The GFS tracking model shows landfall moving even further west, to the western Gulf coast of Louisiana. Subject to change without notice.
 

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And now they are moving the landfall estimate back east again... :face_palm_02:
 

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I've been watching and honestly after 48 hours you can't trust the model. At this time it doesn't even really enter the gulf, it brushes the southern tip of Florida and then goes up the coast. This time tomorrow it'll be different.
 
I am kind of limiting my viewing to the GFS model, because they are ALL different. I guess I just find it interesting how just this single model can put the landfall prediction all over the map, and all over the calendar. Started out with landfall expected on Sunday morning. Now it is predicted to be Thursday night. Of course, WHERE it is predicted to make landfall has moved yet again too. :face_palm_02:
 

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bcr229 said:
I've been watching and honestly after 48 hours you can't trust the model. At this time it doesn't even really enter the gulf, it brushes the southern tip of Florida and then goes up the coast. This time tomorrow it'll be different.
Click to expand...

exactly. When I worked in insurance claims we didn't start watching NOLA until about 48/36 hours before expected touch/landfall just cause the models change so quickly and it's so tough to predict.
 
Why don't they just throw darts at pieces of paper on the wall? They certainly couldn't be any less accurate than the way they are doing it.

The below is showing landfall on Wednesday morning now.
 

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And here we go back to landfall at Tampa Bay again. Landfall at 8:00pm on Wednesday 09-28-2022. :rolleyes:
 

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And 'round and around we go... Now they are showing landfall back near my area. Landfall at 2:00pm on Friday, 09-30-2022. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
 

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Moving a little bit west. Again...

Landfall at 2:00am on Friday, 09-30-2022.
 

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And then back towards the east again, with landfall near Cedar Key on 09-30-2022 at 11:00am. :rolleyes:
 

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And here we go... Back to the forecast track with the storm taking a bead right on our house. :(

Landfall predicted on 09-30-2022 at 2:00am.
 

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But wait!! They aren't done moving that prediction quite yet! Now it has moved much further west.

Landfall on 09-30-2022, around 7:00am.
 

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Ah, moving eastward again. Landfall, 09-30, 05:00am.
 

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And a little bit more eastward... Landfall, 09-30, 08:00am.
 

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Sigh.... :ack2: Now back to coming down our street again. 09-30-2022 at 08:00am.
 

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