What Ball projects should we --> breeders and hobbyist-- be focusing on?

[EmeraldBoid]

I know what you were getting at, and I agree that it is most noticeable with the "entry level" morphs (single gene codoms). I don't doubt that some of it is people overproducing, but I think part of it also results from breeders working on higher end projects just getting bad luck (breeding a couple codom combos together and getting a bunch of single genes out). So not only do you have the lower end breeders producing them, but higher end breeders who don't get along with statistics and end up with a bunch of them that they have to dump to make up costs.

The problem with that too is that there isn't a whole lot of variation with single gene morphs, especially the subtle ones (YB or het anything) so it really is a battle for who is going to give the lowest price (obviously this isn't true for all morphs...pastels immediately come to mind).

I'm just going to stay optimistic and make combos that I think look cool, or that I think will look really cool, and hopefully other people will like them as well. I suppose time will tell

The majority of higher end projects make use of supers and this is far from limited to incomplete dominant mutations, look at the albino market. If you look at many of the threads in this forum you will find that most people have had decent and often exceptional results when breeding something as simple as two double gene snakes. Some one recently hatched out 1-2 ghost pewters from a pewter het ghost X normal het ghost pairing. Of course though the real million dollar question I have for your argument is: If people are having such poor odds, why are prices still dropping rapidly on some the most stunning mutations? I.e. Bananas, albino combos, pumas, BELs, pastel clowns, etc... . I respect your argument, but from a logical stand point the ideal that odds are that bad is simply illogical especially considering the number of available designers in comparison to most BP clutches being under ten eggs on average. Granted maybe six years of watching the classifieds have had an effect on me.

 

[Big Borg Reptiles]

I was trying to find the link to a video with Garrick I found the other day pipping a bunch of his eggs from this season. He bred a triple codom to a normal and had about 14 eggs, most of which ended up being 1 gene animals, some were 2.

Also, super 'x' to a normal makes 100% 'x'. And I don't think using one example of someone having exceptionally good luck is a proper refute for my argument . The odds of the results you stated from such a pairing (off the top of my head) would be 1/16 or 6% for one (which really isn't that rare), and 3% chance for two.

When someone breeds a triple gene to a normal, there are equally good odds that they will get triples, doubles, or singles of all of the genes (or even a normal). They are obviously hoping for the best, but statistically they are just as likely to get singles as they are triples. I guess technically you wouldn't consider that bad odds, just bad luck in general. For big breeders, when they do this over a dozen times, they end up with a lot of single genes inadvertently.

As for the bananas and the other ones you stated, I mentioned in one of the first posts I made on here that people jumping on the new and popular morphs DOES cause a flooding of that morph, and DOES end up hurting the market. I saw one person with 20 male bananas, which makes it obvious he just bought a banana male and bred it to a bunch of normals. That's because it's new, popular, and expensive. I'm not saying everyone does this, as I see a lot of other things done with bananas, but anyone jumping on a new morph should realize that someone is going to be breeding out a couple dozen to try to make a buck, and the price of the morph is without a doubt going to drop. Same story with the other morphs you mentioned...popular, pricey, and simple to make, so of course you're going to see a ton of people with them once they figure that out.

I definitely understand what you're trying to say, but why would anyone be mass producing things like pastels, mojaves, or yellowbellies intentionally when there are dozens of other morphs that are worth much more? It's the result of not hitting the odds on double/triple/quadruple gene males to normals, as I see it.

 

[hhmoore]

Sorry hhmoore I did not mean to offend you

I'm not so easily offended.

I know what you were getting at, and I agree that it is most noticeable with the "entry level" morphs (single gene codoms). I don't doubt that some of it is people overproducing, but I think part of it also results from breeders working on higher end projects just getting bad luck (breeding a couple codom combos together and getting a bunch of single genes out).

If you believe that, I can only guess that you're basing your theories on a rather limited view formed from observations over a relatively short period of time. It's not as though this has happened over the past 3-4 years, after all. The so called entry level morphs have been mass produced for years. They didn't start out cheap, and they didn't start out commonplace...but codoms have only really been in the game for, what, 15 years? (Pastels were first; and they were proven somewhere around '99, I think.)
One should consider how these morphs enter the marketplace - the founders (or first buyers) don't hold back a couple of babies and sell the rest..they hold onto them while they're figuring out how the morph works AND work on combinations. Once they've got a bunch of breeders, they start trickling out single gene babies. The next buyers pay big money to get in early, and do basically the same thing; but more and more are released each successive year, and the prices start dropping. Eventually, the founders (and early buyers) are far enough ahead that they start dumping babies, and prices fall hard. That isn't necessarily the point of saturation; but it's pretty much the point of no return - because that's when the big buy-in happens.

I will agree that aesthetics is a highly subjective concept; and that's a good thing because we need people to buy the ugly babies, too...but if you don't think there are "quality" differences in yellowbellies, spiders, lessers, black pastels, etc, you are likely to become part of the problem.

 

[j_dunlavy]

I understand the argument but I disagree to some extent. We just paid twice as much for a baby snake as we could have paid for an adult breeder (same exact morph combo) simply because the genetics were clearly much nicer.

I would argue that most of the people who are pushing out triple genes are just doing it to try to make money, and the combos themselves look like crap. Anybody can take a couple codom snakes and make triple or quad combos, but if they look like garbage who is going to want them?

I stand by the statement that if people work to produce quality, their snakes will sell. Pumping a bunch of different codoms into a snake doesn't automatically make it worth a grand. I don't care how many genes a snake has, I just want it to look nice.

This is the #1 thing I am trying to do.
I spent a lot of time and money finding the best looking examples of the morphs I am interested in. I plan to make combos that are of a high caliber.
The fly by night people tend to buy cheap and usually end up buying mediocre examples of each morph... well if you start with ugly snakes the offspring will be ugly too. I have seen so many "super pastels" that look muddy as adults; it is no wonder they are cheap.
It cost me more, but I went for the real lookers.

In the end I want to make the combos for myself... hobby...

 

[SPJ]

Perception of mass quantities can also tank the market on a particular morph. Look what Morph King did to the mojave market. They didn't have to quantities advertised but by undercutting others by 1,000's of dollars per animal and causing others to panic and sell cheap, the price plummeted very fast.

 

[EmeraldBoid]

I was trying to find the link to a video with Garrick I found the other day pipping a bunch of his eggs from this season. He bred a triple codom to a normal and had about 14 eggs, most of which ended up being 1 gene animals, some were 2.

Also, super 'x' to a normal makes 100% 'x'. And I don't think using one example of someone having exceptionally good luck is a proper refute for my argument . The odds of the results you stated from such a pairing (off the top of my head) would be 1/16 or 6% for one (which really isn't that rare), and 3% chance for two.

When someone breeds a triple gene to a normal, there are equally good odds that they will get triples, doubles, or singles of all of the genes (or even a normal). They are obviously hoping for the best, but statistically they are just as likely to get singles as they are triples. I guess technically you wouldn't consider that bad odds, just bad luck in general. For big breeders, when they do this over a dozen times, they end up with a lot of single genes inadvertently.

As for the bananas and the other ones you stated, I mentioned in one of the first posts I made on here that people jumping on the new and popular morphs DOES cause a flooding of that morph, and DOES end up hurting the market. I saw one person with 20 male bananas, which makes it obvious he just bought a banana male and bred it to a bunch of normals. That's because it's new, popular, and expensive. I'm not saying everyone does this, as I see a lot of other things done with bananas, but anyone jumping on a new morph should realize that someone is going to be breeding out a couple dozen to try to make a buck, and the price of the morph is without a doubt going to drop. Same story with the other morphs you mentioned...popular, pricey, and simple to make, so of course you're going to see a ton of people with them once they figure that out.

I definitely understand what you're trying to say, but why would anyone be mass producing things like pastels, mojaves, or yellowbellies intentionally when there are dozens of other morphs that are worth much more? It's the result of not hitting the odds on double/triple/quadruple gene males to normals, as I see it.

I used this entire forum as an example, the pewter ghost project was just an outstanding example. By the use of supers, that includes super X super, super combo X super, etc... ; for example, if I breed a pastel BEL (let's say lesser X lesser) to a super enchi, then over several seasons I am likely to wind up with about half Pastel lesser enchis and half lesser enchis. Of course it's possible to not hit the odds, that's why they are odds, but to assume that a few poor odds are representative of the entire breeding population would have the same fallacies as if I tried to make the pewter ghost project representative of hitting the odds. What I am trying to say, is as much as we want it to be true, people are not so stupid that they do not recognize patterns or understand genetics to some degree (genetics down to the molecular level were taught at my high school, so I assume many others have similar education). On top of that we cannot, as you have pointed out, fool around with statistics without getting burned here and there, but at the same time we cannot play the game without falling into some form of consistenty. In short, yes there is a flood of single gene/lower end mutations; however there is also an excess of higher end designer animals. Why? Because between some doing "poor" pairings, some doing reasonable pairings, and others doing guaranteed pairings (I.e. killer clown X killer clown = killer clowns) there is a balance so to speak. My point: the issue is a lot more than just an excess of pastels from a few people breeding bumble bees to pinstripes (or another common project). It is no doubt that the excess of lower end animals is a big factor, but if you throw them out then you just have an excess of designers, why? Because once again, we have produced the numbers and the numbers do not lie. I imagine the two of us are putting on quite the show for a few lurkers. Lol

 

[SPJ]

To be honest, most of the single and double gene animals out there now are crap. Pastels are a great example. When they came on the market, they looked better than most super pastels out there now. Mass production by people just trying to make a buck has resulted in browned out crap animals. This has been 9 new of the main drivers to prices dropping. No small clutches of selectively bred animals. Mass production and pairing any animal to get eggs. When you do see the spectacular examples out there for sale, most buyers won't pay the price. I have heard so many times that "an ugly example can still produce good babies." Yeah. Maybe 1 out of 5 will be decent but your breeding stock should be the best of the best and pairings should strive to enhance the quality. Too many just throw crap together and then they have to settle for low prices for the subpar morphs babies they are selling.

 

[Big Borg Reptiles]

One should consider how these morphs enter the marketplace - the founders (or first buyers) don't hold back a couple of babies and sell the rest..they hold onto them while they're figuring out how the morph works AND work on combinations. Once they've got a bunch of breeders, they start trickling out single gene babies. The next buyers pay big money to get in early, and do basically the same thing; but more and more are released each successive year, and the prices start dropping. Eventually, the founders (and early buyers) are far enough ahead that they start dumping babies, and prices fall hard. That isn't necessarily the point of saturation; but it's pretty much the point of no return - because that's when the big buy-in happens.

I will agree that aesthetics is a highly subjective concept; and that's a good thing because we need people to buy the ugly babies, too...but if you don't think there are "quality" differences in yellowbellies, spiders, lessers, black pastels, etc, you are likely to become part of the problem.

I'm aware of how the new genes are introduced into the masses, I was only referring to genes that have been around for some time (pastels, ybs, spiders, etc). My argument is, if it weren't for the odds missing on triple gene combos to normals (just as an example), you wouldn't have the quantity of the single genes that you see. There is no one sitting and mass producing the older morphs like pastels (I would hope not anyway, there are a lot higher goals to shoot for), they're commonplace because of missed odds while trying to breed into higher combos. That's my thought anyway. This does not apply to new morphs such as the banana, where yes, people are simply mass producing it and flooding.

And yes, I can spot the difference between a high quality and low quality single gene...I thought I was clear that it's just harder for normal people to tell with subtle morphs, and many people don't do enough research to know the difference and go by price. I've been looking for a male specter for a couple months now and have passed on at least half a dozen because I don't think they meet what I'm looking for.

 

[Big Borg Reptiles]

I used this entire forum as an example, the pewter ghost project was just an outstanding example. By the use of supers, that includes super X super, super combo X super, etc... ; for example, if I breed a pastel BEL (let's say lesser X lesser) to a super enchi, then over several seasons I am likely to wind up with about half Pastel lesser enchis and half lesser enchis. Of course it's possible to not hit the odds, that's why they are odds, but to assume that a few poor odds are representative of the entire breeding population would have the same fallacies as if I tried to make the pewter ghost project representative of hitting the odds. What I am trying to say, is as much as we want it to be true, people are not so stupid that they do not recognize patterns or understand genetics to some degree (genetics down to the molecular level were taught at my high school, so I assume many others have similar education). On top of that we cannot, as you have pointed out, fool around with statistics without getting burned here and there, but at the same time we cannot play the game without falling into some form of consistenty. In short, yes there is a flood of single gene/lower end mutations; however there is also an excess of higher end designer animals. Why? Because between some doing "poor" pairings, some doing reasonable pairings, and others doing guaranteed pairings (I.e. killer clown X killer clown = killer clowns) there is a balance so to speak. My point: the issue is a lot more than just an excess of pastels from a few people breeding bumble bees to pinstripes (or another common project). It is no doubt that the excess of lower end animals is a big factor, but if you throw them out then you just have an excess of designers, why? Because once again, we have produced the numbers and the numbers do not lie. I imagine the two of us are putting on quite the show for a few lurkers. Lol

I think for some reason I got lost in my own brain and started only talking about the older codom genes. Haha. I stand by what I said about them and their prevalence. However, as far as the new genes are concerned, you and Harald are absolutely right. It is people not having a filter, not caring about trying to make new combos that are exciting and beautiful (or old proven combos that are exciting and beautiful), and simply trying to make cash on the new big thing.

I'm running on very little sleep the last couple days, so I apologize for losing track of what's going on

 

[Big Borg Reptiles]

Perception of mass quantities can also tank the market on a particular morph. Look what Morph King did to the mojave market. They didn't have to quantities advertised but by undercutting others by 1,000's of dollars per animal and causing others to panic and sell cheap, the price plummeted very fast.

Was that the guy who sold people a bunch of mojave's for 8 grand, then turned around the next year and said 'they're only worth 200 so that's what I'm selling them for'? I remember reading a loooong thread about that, absolutely crazy.

 

[hhmoore]

The simple ones were already mass produced...that doesn't mean there aren't people that want them; nor does it mean that there aren't people breeding for them. You are right that mid-high level breeders aren't doing yellowbelly x normal (or comparable) pairings any more, and that their production of simple morphs is a byproduct of multigene pairings; but lots of entry level breeders are still doing the basics.
Heck - I have, and breed, single and double gene BPs...and I'm content to do so. I still have a couple of normals that are likely to be bred in my pursuit of one project. I've largely stayed away from morphs I might have trouble identifying; and I don't particularly want to produce combos I can't readily identify (though the latter does happen). My approach and attitudes are self limiting...but, then, I don't have any desire to be "bigger" than I am.

 

[EmeraldBoid]

I think for some reason I got lost in my own brain and started only talking about the older codom genes. Haha. I stand by what I said about them and their prevalence. However, as far as the new genes are concerned, you and Harald are absolutely right. It is people not having a filter, not caring about trying to make new combos that are exciting and beautiful (or old proven combos that are exciting and beautiful), and simply trying to make cash on the new big thing.

I'm running on very little sleep the last couple days, so I apologize for losing track of what's going on

No need to apologize, I have been working on my novel the last few nights and am in the same boat. I think we have all enjoyed the back and forth and walked away with a few new perspectives despite the fact that we are both dogmatic in our original ideals.

It is past my bed time, time to put on the footy pajamas, brush my teeth, and head off to dreamland...aka fool around on my phone until I pass out. I gotta get up early and bake muffins too, I am just going to throw every flavor I have in the same bowl with some coconut oil, vanilla, and cinnamon.

 

[Big Borg Reptiles]

The simple ones were already mass produced...that doesn't mean there aren't people that want them; nor does it mean that there aren't people breeding for them. You are right that mid-high level breeders aren't doing yellowbelly x normal (or comparable) pairings any more, and that their production of simple morphs is a byproduct of multigene pairings; but lots of entry level breeders are still doing the basics.
Heck - I have, and breed, single and double gene BPs...and I'm content to do so. I still have a couple of normals that are likely to be bred in my pursuit of one project. I've largely stayed away from morphs I might have trouble identifying; and I don't particularly want to produce combos I can't readily identify (though the latter does happen). My approach and attitudes are self limiting...but, then, I don't have any desire to be "bigger" than I am.

You're absolutely right...I just look at the scale that some of the bigger breeders are on and can't imagine that the couple single genes and normals I will end up with will mean jack in the big scheme of things. I suppose it all adds up though. I think every snake we have is a single or double gene (unless you count super pastel as two, but I don't), so we are going to end up with a few single genes as well...partially because we know very specifically what combos we want to make and don't want to end up with a jumbled mess of morphs.

I do want to be bigger than I am, but I want to work my way to that point. I have bought quite a few snakes rather rapidly, but I'm more concerned with buying unrelated snakes to create different lines of the same combos...they won't even come into play until a couple years from now. Very little of the breeding we have planned for this season will be for things to sell next year, it's almost all for future projects. Every business I have ever been involved in has been looked at as a long term investment, not a 'get rich quick' scheme.

 

[j_dunlavy]

I do want to be bigger than I am, but I want to work my way to that point. I have bought quite a few snakes rather rapidly, but I'm more concerned with buying unrelated snakes to create different lines of the same combos...they won't even come into play until a couple years from now. Very little of the breeding we have planned for this season will be for things to sell next year, it's almost all for future projects. Every business I have ever been involved in has been looked at as a long term investment, not a 'get rich quick' scheme.

I am in the same boat as you...more or less.
While getting some of my snakes I went to great lengths to avoid buying sibling pairs... although when dealing with recessive genes some level of inbreeding is nearly impossible to avoid.
Another thing I did to try and prevent excessive production of normals was to buy visual recessives and supers where I could. The last thing I wanted to end up with was a bunch of 66% hets... that are basically considered normals.
My main goal is to produce stunning, healthy and strong animals for myself and to sell. I don't expect to be big, I just hope to have the snakes support themselves... and maybe bring in a few extra bucks on the side.



Another, older thread on the same topic is here:
http://www.faunaclassifieds.com/forums/showthread.php?t=442568

I think as a community, reptile breeders (pro and hobbyist) should keep talking about these issues and maybe the market will have a chance of becoming more stable.

 

[David Reid]

I think part of the problem is there is no pinnacle, no top dog Ball right now. Just like the NFL draft, the top guys sign and then the rest fall in line money wise. If there is no top dog, ie, the Banana, a Lucy, etc., the rest of the pricing structure crumbles. The people who think that everyone should be able to afford any Ball they want, even if they work a minimum wage job, is at least part of the problem. I would love a Ferrari, but I cannot afford one. If everyone could, they would not be all that sought after. Overproducing, breeding your Co Dom male to every normal female you can get your hands on is not a smart practice. I do not have any normal females in my collection, have not have any (unless you count a few dinker females) in years.

 

[NIGRO51]

breeding your Co Dom male to every normal female you can get your hands on is not a smart practice.

If someone is looking to reproduce that male I see it as a very smart practice.

I do not have any normal females in my collection, have not have any (unless you count a few dinker females) in years.

This does not sound right to me. Just because you do not deal in normal females does not make you or your projects superior to anyone else. Some people do not follow the "trendy" projects and like "lower end" or single gene animals.


(This is in no way an attack on you so please do not take it personally.)

 

[FelixatRI]

The ball python Gold rush is over... don't breed more than what you can feed and breed animals you won't mind keeping if they don't sell that simple... the BP world is an unregulated one. So most new morphs will be tanked in 2yrs unless they are managed like the ghi project. See every one looks at it as a business.... how many still look at it as a hobby ??? And not worry about what they sell

 

[hhmoore]

Overproducing, breeding your Co Dom male to every normal female you can get your hands on is not a smart practice.

If someone is looking to reproduce that male I see it as a very smart practice.

I disagree. I don't have a problem breeding a codom male to a normal female, or even a few of them, especially if it is something unique. However, for well established morphs, it merely adds to the market saturation. Let's face it - by the time most people jump into "new" projects, the top several levels of real players have already built their breeding stock and have been producing combinations. Sure, if you jump in early, and drop the big bucks, it makes sense to cash in by producing in quantity before the explosion drives down the prices...that's feeding the demand. But, after that, it just contributes to the problem. Smart production is good, over production is detrimental.

I've got a fairly unique male that I want to reproduce...but breeding him to a bunch of normal females is just silly. If it doesn't work the way I want, I'd have way too many common snakes to get rid of; and, if I scored on it, I'd have too many special ones to hold on to. I can achieve the same goals by keeping things manageable.

 

[David Reid]

Anthony, I do no think I have ever listened to anything you have said, as it does not make sense. Don't take it personally....

If you have a Mojave male and breed it to every normal female you have, making a ton of single gene Mojaves, you are going to have a hard time selling all of them. Thus, you lower the price to move the 30 Mojaves you have. If you produce three single gene Mojaves, and several Mojave combos, you have a much better chance of selling them, and not competing with every other get rich quick Ball breeder.

Dave

 

[NIGRO51]

Not everyone does this to sell and get rich quick. Maybe they want a stack of Mojaves ..