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Yes, I know you dont want to talk about this, but lets discuss the inevitable

wahberee

wahberee

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So me and a buddy of mine were chatting about random things in the gecko market, and we came accross an interesting topic...... Population. Now as you all know, geckos are one of the easiest herps to maintain, and their mature rate is by far quicker then most other herps. Now here's some math...
Using conservative estimate's lets say you have a pair of gecko's. Assuming that all the geckos are taken care of with standard ethics, any amateur breeder can successfully breed this pair within the first year, resulting in a total of 14 geckos. Assuming that half of the babies in the first year are incubated for female, you now have yourself a total of 7 females. Now lets say all these babies are sold off to the public. Now a year later, 7 females are bred, and in the second year, your output of babies is now 7*12 = 84, half of them being females so the new total is 49..... basically, assuming that all the female babies will be bred and assuming all of the females are cared for with standard animal ethics, the cumulative output that can be derived from a single pair in 10 years is a whopping 1,735,205,101. AND THATS NOT EVEN INCLUDING THE MALES. Please understand that this number is NOT an exxageration, if you would like me to explain or even give you the formula to how I came up with this number I would be glad to do so, but not on this thread. Human population on the other hand is around 6.5 billion at the moment
e-01(world_pop_growth).gif

and with the rate of gecko growth being so much faster then the rate of human growth, what measurements are we taking to prevent over-population of geckos? It will happen, within in the next 2 years, guaranteed. Personally, I am getting out of leos completely after this year and keeping geckos solely as pets because of priorities, but if I didn't have priorities, I would be breeding like a madman. What are your thoughts?
 
Supply and demand figures into the ways and manner in which geckoes or any pet comes into the market. I believe that the picture might not be quite that bleak for all geckoes, I for instance have 4 females, and should I decided to get a male and breed one of them, may just keep the offspring. Many people keep geckoes but do not breed them at all.
In addition, some pet owners keep single geckoes, and others, not knowing how to raise or keep geckoes, have their pets die.
But I believe that natural economic forces will help keep the overpopulation problems within check. If the price of geckoes comes down to where their selling price does not even recover upkeep costs, breeders will delay or stop breedings.
Because geckoes are portable, relatively inexpensive to feed, and can be kept in enclosures, I do not see the same abandonment problems as one sees in cats or dogs.
Excellent topic.
 
I had tried to discuss this in the leo chat, several months back, but no one wanted to talk about it then. I was looking at it from the business stand point, as I am just trying to get rolling on selling. I too wondered at what point does the market reach "critical mass", and there were simply too much supply and not enough demand. Your numbers put that into perspective. Since I have only been doing this a short time compared to the many others of you, I do not know what the trends have been. Has interest and demand kept up with production? How many breeders have failed simply because they couldn't sell off their stock?

Tony
 
I dont think it will get that big that fast, you didn't take into fact that every, lets say 18 years the gecko dies of age. In that graph you supplied us with, every one of those lines on the X axis 2.777778 generations die. But if all those geckos were breed like you said, their life spand would be shorter making the number of generations to die even higher. Soon it will over populate eventually but not that fast and the supply and demand just won't be as high any more so then people will stop breeding them until more people want them. Well thats just my theory on the matter.
 
I don't think too many people run into problems with selling off their stock unless there are health factors or they want to much. This business is just like any other with the fact that you must advertise!
I agree with the fact that you can churn out a ton of geckos and that the market can flood itself BUT for this reason we need to educate the public and keep new people getting involved. We can create a market simply by reaching out to new people and putting our hobby within reach of those that might be interested. I can see 10 years before Leos price themselves out of the market since there are more and more people becoming involved... luckily geckos are something you can have 25 of and still not take up as much room as a dog!

You think Leo's are bad? Try figuring out Bearded Dragons.. talk about pricing themselves out of the market!
 
Gecko place,
I didnt take into fact that second year breeders produce a lot more eggs then first year breeders, I also didnt take into fact, that a lot of breeders incubate for females more then males because females can be housed together. The average life expenctancy of a gecko is over 20 years in captivity and my estimate for population was based on a 10 year time frame, and as I said, if they were housed properly, even the first female should be alive up until the last year of my time frame. I understand that I am neglecting some factors that exist such as crappy owners, diseases, etc... but for high-end morphs, this estimate is a reality and also a underestimate. Are we to say that with this population overgrowth, morphs will become obsolete? Normals will not be bred anymore? In ten years, what if Hybino's are just as obsolete as normals are today? The leopard gecko population could very well surpass the human population in a couple of years, and I doubt every single person on earth wants a leo.
 
Your graph is in incriments of 50 not 10. But still, most people dont breed there geckos so it won't over populate that fast. From what your graph was based and what i understand you were saying they breed every year? That will make the females life spand lower and just say they live until 20, well thats still 2 generations dieing in your graph. But as for every person not wanting one, i'll take Johnny's, John's, Ralph's, Craig's, Don's, Curt's, Bob's, and mabye Charlie's. Montezuma im sure you want Dan's dont you? My point is that usually people who collect these herps get more than 1, and everyone won't want one like you said but also the breeders won't be producing a lot if the demand isn't high any more, so the population of geckos will still stay lower than the human population. I think once it reaches a high enough number, people won't be buying more unless their geckos die of unatural causes (parasites, improper care, some kind of disease, etc.) or when their gecko dies of age.
 
The graph I included was humans population not geckos(made by the government), I didnt make a graph for geckos.
 
I am wondering if I was the only person who read the graph, and upon seeing (6.2 billion) automatically new it was human population...lol. I still think supply and demand will cover it. Just like someone said about bearded dragons. Yes some beardeds are dieing right now becouse of the mass marketing but the level of breeders are dropping tremendously...ie - the amount sold will drop, and the death rate will as well.
Jim
 
One quick question though. If that is the case, then why did Green Iguanas get to where they are today??.....
 
This is a very interesting topic. I think one other fact we need to consider is who is our market? FOr me, alot of parents seem to be contacting me about getting a Leo for their child (older not like a toddler). As children grow from toddler to youngin' they start wanting a pet. SO every year we have a supply and demand. Every year, however, more Leos die as they are not being taken care of properly by that kid or even by that adult. While I do think this market will become saturated at one point I'm not sure that what has happened with iguanas will happen with Leos. I hope not. If breeders keep in contact and talk about pricing we can keep the market going.

I do wonder, with the mass producers who supply the chain stores, what happens to the leos they dont sell?
 
If you look at the bearded dragon market, its oversaturated for sure. But what is it oversaturated with? Normals... People see normals in petstores for upto $150 for an adult and find out they can lay over 130 eggs a year and then see $$$. Only the beareded dragon breeders who give a care about their biz, only breed the best of the best. Which is also the reason normals can get $20-$40 at shows nowadays. Then you wind up with inexperience people who breed them purposly or accidentally and because of the ammount of eggs they lay, you have the problem thats in that market.

The same trend is happening with leopard geckos for sure, but will it get that bad? leo's are cheaper and easier to house than bearded's, so they are more appealing to the average consumer. You can house 2-3 adults in a 20 gallon long tank Vs a bearded dragon where you can only house a duo in a 60+ gallon tank.

I honestly doubt it will get that bad that soon. Look around on the all the reptile forums. There have been alot of people that mourned losses of their leo's last year alone. I have seen some this year already too and a majority of them were within its first 2 years of life.

I see that figure as the most extreme end of it. You have to take into consideration more factors. like if someone incubated them all at male or mixed. Not all of them would be used for breeders and that not all eggs will hatch and other things.

Heck, We are not even through all the possible morphs yet. People are coming out with new ones every year. It will take a year or two before all those leo's would start to even flood the market. Look at sunglows and snows, they are the envy of most peoples collections. Do you think in several years they will be $100-$200??
 
yeah sorry about that, should have clarified the graph,
but I could see sunglows and super snows reaching the $100 mark within 5 years. As long as new morphs are created, I guess there will be a hiearchy of prices, but even rare morphs today will become tommorow's normals. Im wondering if a normal would even exist in a couple of years.
 
There are those of us who will keep the normals around........
And when the time is right we will ressurect the normal morph......
And make a bundle off all of you who want one.......
((Insert evil laugh)) :dgrin:


LOL

Tony :rolleyes:
 
GeckoPalace said:
Montezuma im sure you want Dan's dont you?
Click to expand...

What? hmm? Ok, I am lost here... whats this about? I don't just want the Dan's, I want the Tylers, Jim's, Jeff's, Sarahs, Margarets.. oh heck, just give me thr rest of the baby book of names. Ahh Forget that, just give me all the names and you can take a day or 2 off. LOL
 
montezuma said:
What? hmm? Ok, I am lost here... whats this about?
Click to expand...

I was just making a point that usually people who keep these geckos have more than one and that means that everyone in the world doesn't have to have one. From his example he said that the gecko population would be as big as the human and that not everyone would want one. understand?
 
I understand that but why do I just get the Dans? LOL! I agree that most people who have bought a gecko tend to want a couple. I cannot even begin to recall how many times I have heard "I have a leopard gecko that seems quite lonely and would like to get him/her a friend," being a good person I tell them that they don't need comapanionship but I am more than happy to hook em up. I think they feel better about themselves when they have given their gecko a friend.
 
I guess may feel better about themselves that they are getting a friend for their gecko, or they could just be sly and making that an excuse to get one :dancer01: Well i guess you can have Fred's and Nancy's, but ya might have to fight for it. :rofl:
 
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