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Bad Guy Jason Felong - sold me a het that didn't prove out

#2) There is a difference between "bad luck" and statistical probabilities that border impossible. Getting an albino wasn't hitting the lottery, not getting any albinos in 11 eggs was hitting the lottery. With 11 non-albino eggs, it doesn't matter if they were all in one clutch or I had 11, one egg clutches: the results are the same. 1/2048. Try flipping a penny 11x with heads each time, you're not going to do it.

The closest other ball python experience was 8 non-pieds in a pied X het pied clutch, which would be 1/256, which is almost 10 times more likely. Not to mention the chance of sperm retention mentioned above.

So what think you of my one caramel-based baby from a het to a visual out of a clutch of 19. I beat your odds by a lot with 0.0003% on that one. Such things do happen, albeit very rarely. The female was a virgin for that clutch, so no chance of retained sperm with my odds.
 
Genetics are funny & even with the most favorable odds there are no guarantees. Statistical probabilities only go so fair when you did manage to factor in mutations, sperm retention, & who knows what else. Sure, there is a chance the snake is as sold & the opt Kelsey has luck that any casino would welcome but honestly how many folks needing a het albino would be interested in buying this snake right now after hearing about the last to clutches. I don't know the gentleman who sold the snake but it seems odds favor a miscommunication over genetics when the animal was sold then the odds over what has been produced to date. Best of luck to everyone involved & I hope it works out in everyone's favor, I just wouldn't bet on that either.
 
I wouldnt give up on that het just yet, not after not producing an albino after only 11 eggs.I have used many many hets to produce visuals. sometimes you luck out and get 75% + visuals other times you end up with no visuals.the results are not predictable.

The absolute most important thing about hets is buying from someone you know and trust!
 
Each egg is an independent genetic event and has no impact on separate independent genetic events. I would not try to predict future independent genetic events based on current or past independent genetic events. However, one does have to make a call at some point in order to "move on".

It isn't so much that she is trying to predict future genetic events based on passed events. It's that statistically you would have predicted that there would have been an albino pop up by now from a visual x het pairing.

An example with coins because everyone seems to understand coin flips: each time you flip said coin you have a 50/50 chance of getting heads (same for tails). So probability theory says that if you flip the coin 100 times you SHOULD end up with 50 heads and 50 tails. Now, sure you might not be exactly at 50/50 but if you flip your coin say 1,000,000 times probability takes over and you would end up with pretty dang close to 500,000 heads and 500,000 tails if not exactly! This does not mean that the probability of flipping heads on each coin is different from 50/50 but that given enough flips you should end up with equal numbers. This also does not mean that you can't calculate the probability of getting no heads out of 11 flips though.

The same applies to snake clutches. Yes, each egg is statistically independent in terms of whether it will receive the albino gene or not. BUT overall 50% of the babies SHOULD display a visual albino trait in a visual to 100% het breeding (given enough eggs of course). So the question really comes down to how many eggs is enough to judge if a snake is a het or not. In this, I do not know! I do know that after 11 eggs and no albinos I would be more than a little nervous about it. Who knows the next 11 eggs could ALL be albinos and then this is a moot point. But yes, I agree at some point you have to throw in the towel and call it.

I think his lack of response to the OPs email is the part that pushed this over the top for her. I'm sure if he would have replied and said give it one more season because I produced it, here are picks of the parents, this thread would not be here.
 
What you are speaking to relates to sample size for everything to bear out. We would not speak in terms of ten if dealing with pea plants or fruit flies, so likewise I would not pre-conclude with snakes. But unless one plans to create 100 neonates, there is a personal call to make.

If you want to compare coin flips, then do so on equal footing. Not 1,000,000 times, but the number of times the OP has had eggs with results he can determine. My father won a betting contest in his home country in his town square where he flipped a coin a dozen times and got the same result. He used that money along with other savings to help him come to this country. A fluke and nothing more at that sample size. Wonderful for him because it worked in his favor, but luck could have just as easily not favored him.

If I had a clutch of ten from homozygote x "heterozygote" with no homozygote neonates, I would become suspicious. Two clutches? Near sure (confident) for me and I would at this point reconfigure my project to accommodate an inability to rely on her het status (basically get a backup plan). Three? Sure enough for me to consider her disproven for the sake of my project, although it is still remotely possible (one could argue you can never technically disprove the animal via test breeding and that the probability just approaches some infinitely small chance, but -as I have maintained- there comes a point where a call must be made or one can remain in a useless limbo).

I agree that a lack of response is concerning. I should also point out that I am not trying to defend or accuse anyone here. I am simply saying this should be carefully evaluated in its given context. If I breed a visual male to a supposedly het female and I get ten hets, that does not mean I do or do not have a het dam, nor does it mean I am "owed" or should expect a neat case of five homozygotes and five heterozygotes, although lacking one visual would start my suspicion train rolling at least a little. I would still consider it my responsibility to give the female additional attempts before making a strong and damning declaration as to her status and the nature of the business deal that brought her into my possession. When I bred leopard geckos, I had seasons where a het eclipse female bred to an eclipse male produced all eclipses, I had a second season where she produced none, and then a third season with a relatively even mix. Same female. Always bred to an eclipse. If the second season's results and the first season's results were switched and I cried foul, I would have been incorrectly describing the genetic nature of my animal and I would have unfairly made a false claim against the seller when inadequate justification existed.
 
Not standing up for the seller, but offering the benefit of doubt - is it possible that this is a case of retained sperm as well? If the "het albino's" mother had been bred before, maybe her clutch came from the previous mating rather than the albino, even though they had been thrown in together. Were there any documented locks with the albino?
 
You now have at least 11 100% het albino cinnamon's now

Nope, I didn't see the exact number of normals and cinnys he produced, but mathematically it should have been about half, not all -- the male was not a cinny, remember? So yes, he probably produced a small handful of 100% het albino cinnamons, but not 11.
 
This is why i dont buy hets. Most are all lies and hype up the price only to discover 3-4years of work for nothing!!!

I don't think that most hets are lies, but a very small fraction may be. You just have to be careful of who you buy from and make sure that you trust their genetics. I don't need a signed certificate as that is no better to me than their word, and if there is any doubt about the seller I wouldn't buy from them in the first place.

Getting closer to topic, I do find it interesting that the person in question still did not respond to this thread (someone correct me if I'm wrong). I remember seeing this a couple of weeks ago and was surprised to see it is still not resolved.
 
Getting closer to topic, I do find it interesting that the person in question still did not respond to this thread (someone correct me if I'm wrong). I remember seeing this a couple of weeks ago and was surprised to see it is still not resolved.

The Mr Felong hasn't logged onto this site since a few hours prior to this thread being posted. I don't know how often he visits, or if he was made aware of the thread...his absence could be circumstantial or avoidance.
 
On 5-26-14, Mr. Hultman sent the seller a link to this thread.
I sent him a link.

Mr. Felong also logged into this site after I sent my original message through PM, so I know he at least read that. He hasn't responded to me through this site, through e-mail or through any other type of correspondence.
 
On 5-26-14, Mr. Hultman sent the seller a link to this thread.


Mr. Felong also logged into this site after I sent my original message through PM, so I know he at least read that. He hasn't responded to me through this site, through e-mail or through any other type of correspondence.

As I mentioned, Mr Felong had not logged in since before this thread was posted; so Dennis sending him a link by private message would have been (an unsuccessful ) attempt at notification. Further, unless you have a read receipt, you don't "know" that he read yours...and I can tell you that not everybody reads PMs - I had a stack of nearly 100 unconfirmed read receipts until I deleted some recently.

I'm not saying he doesn't know - I'm more likely to suspect that he's ducking you - I was simply pointing out that he hasn't been here to respond.
 
I don't think that most hets are lies, but a very small fraction may be. You just have to be careful of who you buy from and make sure that you trust their genetics.

You are contradicting yourself! If it's a very few,why worry about "being careful"? Many have gotten screwed over the last 10-14 yrs with fake hets,but not much you can say with het to het because people will make excuses using the odds/bad luck/sperm retention/blah blah. That doesn't fly in this case.... OP got screwed. Lots of cooks out there. It has gotten worse, and will continue. People always need to do their due diligence .;)
 
I personally have never been a big fan of hets. Just for this reason!

If I would purchase a snake that happens to be het, I will only pay what the normals would be going for, or not buy it period.

If you purchase something het, even if it's from a known breeder, I think your responsible for taking the risk.

I trust know one!
 
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